I wanted to call your attention to Seth Cropsey’s post at TheMessenger because, although I agree with some of his bullet points, I found the premises of his piece gobsmackingly, shockingly wrongheaded.
Here are his bullet points:
- Show political commitment to a lengthy Eurasian war
- Freeze ship retirements
- Accelerate the distribution of naval and air basing networks
- Expand air-naval logistics
- Be prepared to strike Chinese mainland targets
Although I think we can, indeed, reduce the likelihood of a war between China and the United States, I don’t think that those measures, severally or in combination, will accomplish that.
The misconception under which Mr. Cropsey is operating is that some things are deterrable while others aren’t. You cannot deter a country from pursuing their core interests. Period. They will pursue them regardless of what we do. Furthermore, we don’t get to dictate to them what their core interests are.
Here’s my alternative list, starting with the most important.
- Stop assuming that China and the U. S. are headed towards an inevitable war
- Stop encouraging Taiwanese independence
- Produce a lot more of what we consume
- Reduce our dependence on Taiwan
- Reduce our dependence on China
- If we use military force anywhere it should be dispositive. We should accomplish our objective.
There are others but that’s a start. I could explain why those are so necessary but I think it’s pretty obvious.
A war between the U. S. and China would benefit no one. We should stop pretending it’s an acceptable idea.
While the neocons are working on ginning up a war with China, the one they have with Russia was escalated once again. Yesterday US/UK/Ukrainian ship drones attacked a Russian warship in the Bosporus that was guarding the Russian-built gas pipeline from Turkey to Hungary. This is yet another American approved attack on NATO allies.
Unless the escalations stop we will get a nuclear war, with bombs all over Europe and North America.
Yesterday, Russian FM Lavrov went out his way to point out that the Atlantic is not a defensive moat, it is a highway for the delivery of weapons. And Medvedev again raised the issue of using nuclear weapons. Just as they did in the months leading up to their SMO in Ukraine, the Russians are urgently sending war warnings. But nobody in Washington is listening.
My response is “show me the money!”.
An assumption is the US Navy isn’t retiring ships because force planners are dumb; but because old ships cost more money maintaining and upgrading than their military value.
Or accelerate the distribution of naval and air basing networks; new bases don’t come free.
So where is the money coming from?
The Federal Government is running a deficit of 5% of GDP with debt to GDP ratio of 98%.
Unlike the previous decade, it seems the Federal Government can no longer print money without serious side effects. The Government could raise taxes, but the taxing potential left is needed to fund “third rail” priorities like social security and medicare. The Government can try to borrow it, but if we borrow from our allies, that’s money our allies cannot spend on defense and with the US’s ally reliant strategy, it may be a wash security wise. That would leave borrowing from Russia, China, or the Middle East. which won’t happen either.
I really do not get it. No offense, but have these people been playing D&D too long.
One group thinks the Russians and Chinese are destined to become our overlords, and the other thinks they are destined to become our serfs.
Having the material and mental capability for war makes you prepared, but it does not “deter” the other guy. First, it takes a lot more material than imaginable. Second, the other guy decides if he can win. Third, the other guy’s decision is not necessarily based upon your calculations.
I will hazard a guess that few of them have ever been in actual combat.
To be clear, my reference to combat is because these are not serious people. They are children playing with tin soldiers, and they are more than willing to start a half-assed war.
At some point, they will get tired of Ukraine, and the Ukrainians will sadly learn that they are no different than the Iraqis, Afghans, Libians, and Syrians. They are playthings for idiots.
Russia is deploying intermediate range tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Those weapons are not aimed at and will not be used in Ukraine. (Russia would want a radionuclide free Ukraine.) They are aimed at Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Germany…
And today we learn that the head of the Ukrainian spy agency has publicly stated that the assassination of Putin is a high priority.
Our new Chairman of the JCS is a former F-16 pilot with expertise in using F-16’s to deliver tactical nuclear weapons.
And beginning 6/12, NATO will conduct the largest air exercise in its history. It will involve 24 countries and 220 aircraft, including 100 aircraft from the US, mostly Air Guard F-16’s.
https://ac.nato.int/archive/2023/AD23_announcement#:~:text=Apr%2020%202023-,German%2Dled%20live%2Dfly%20exercise%20Air%20Defender%202023%20will%20take,June%2012%2D24%2C%202023.
This would make a nice cover for a large-scale air attack on Russian troops in Ukraine. It is likely part of the reason Russia moved nukes to Belarus.
Tasty’s comment below coincided with an article i just finished reading in the New Yorker., detailing a journalist’s 2-week experiences being on the front lines in Ukraine. It gives insights into what the daily lives of those dealing with real combat, versus those on the side lines, analyzing war on a cerebral basis or via video games.
I will hazard a guess that few of them have ever been in actual combat
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine
In fact, most of us have experienced wars the U.S. goes over to fight rather than one’s coming here, involving the populace on our own soil. This kind of arm’s-length engagement deflects from the real nitty gritty, horrific aspects encountered in real battlefront experiences. I wonder if Biden and his generals would be as gung-ho and reckless in continuing this proxy war with Russia, propping up Zelensky with money, armaments, and praise, if any one of them spent time as an infantryman on the front lines?
All of the countries you mention have something in common: they don’t represent core interests of the U. S.
Nothing whatsoever any American voter can do about this.
The major reason the Navy is retiring ships early is because some of them are really bad. The recent shipbuilding programs have been objective failures, notably the LCS and Zumwalt classes.
Since it takes the federal government several decades to field a new major weapon system, it’s not really clear what can be done, but this isn’t something I’ve looked at in several years, so my info may be old.
But I think deterrence is the important goal with China from a military standpoint. We do not want a war, so deterrence is essential. It’s also essential to understand China’s red lines and avoid situations that can escalate.
I usually do not favor can-kicking as a policy measure, but I think it’s appropriate here.
which is why the second thing in my list is not encouraging Taiwanese independence. I do not believe that China can be deterred from acting to prevent that. Do you?
Deterrence is a funny thing. Your opponent decides if and when he will be deterred, and sometimes, your deterrence attempt is taken as a provocation. Unless you are trying to start a fight, mad-dogging somebody is a really bad idea.
Children, especially under six, have a limited understanding of the world, including its size and variety. They do not understand that there are many butterflies. They believe that the one they saw yesterday is the same one they are seeing today.
When a child plays with toy soldiers, there is no conception of the complexity it actually entails. Toy soldiers come from a bag, and if more are needed, mommy and daddy buy more, using the credit card if necessary.
Since a child has no conception of money, finance, or the systems that make those possible, the credit card is unlimited. Basically, it is a magic wand that produces goods.
(@CuriousOnlooker
This where the money will come from – the magic credit card. Humorously, some of these same people will scream about debt limits.)
The US has no credible means to go to war. At best, the US could provide a holding position until the country could mobilize for war, but mobilization means producing military goods instead of consumer goods. Of course, the “Made in the USA” label would be more accurate as “Assembled in the USA from materials and parts originating in China”.
Historically, I am not impressed by the Chinese strategic military abilities, but I have no doubt that they can figure out that cutting off exports to all US suppliers will stop US production, including military goods.
Even more funny is the fact that many of these war-hawks and debt-hawks are also “free-traders”. It is like a Monty Python skit coming to life.
Which of these children has or is developing a plan for rationing? Are they willing to forgo the next iPhone release? How are they going to re-industrialize the US?
Having the means and will goes far beyond having and using the military. It means the means and will to totally transform your country. The Great Depression prepared the country for the deprivation required to win a war. The Great Recession has prepared the country for some childish belief in prosperity without costs.
If the US wants to establish Taiwanese independence, bases should be built on the island. Ocean-side ports should be built and/or enlarged. Diesel subs should be procured and stationed for use in littoral waters.
For general deterrence, the military should be increased to Cold War size, and new bases and training facilities should be built. Ships require resupply, and coaling stations need to be established, supplied, and manned. (For foreign sited naval bases, I like the term “coaling stations”.)
Re-industrialization means a willingness to eliminate many safety and environmental regulations. While many of the war-hawks would welcome this, I am not sure how many will forgo NIMBY to ensure deterrence. Then, there is the aftermath – more fucked-up vets.
(No offense, but “thank you for your service” is a meaningless phrase. “Thank you for your sacrifice” might be better, but I was not drafted. I volunteered, and when it came time, I did my duty.)
If Ukraine is worth fighting over, we should send troops to fight and convert the domestic economy to war production. US troops, with US produced armaments and munitions, on Ukraine soil fighting Russian regulars or Russian backed militias will send a message to the world that the US is serious.
@jan
I only skimmed the article, but I can relate to the digging in chalk (shale).
@Dave Schuler
If the Chinese believe that the US defense of an independent Taiwan credible, they should preventively attack. So, encouraging independence and establishing deterrence could actualize what these idiots are trying to prevent.