What Will the Taliban Do?

At Divergent Options Paul Butchard presents two options for the Afghan Taliban’s future course of action: negotiate with the Afghan government or continue their insurgent war:

Given the territorial degradation being suffered by Daesh in Iraq and Syria and the presence of a Daesh affiliate in Afghanistan, the Taliban may once again find itself in the crosshairs of an international anti-terrorism coalition. There are also increasing levels of international training and advisory support being given to the Afghan government[2] to counter the Taliban. These developments raise the prospect of United States and international re-engagement in Afghanistan. As such, the Taliban must constantly assess their future direction should they hope to survive and thrive.

I think there’s a third alternative, a variant of option #2. Maintain a low profile. Just wait. Here’s the key sentence of Mr. Butchard’s piece:

By continuing military operations, the Taliban risk attracting the attention of the United States military, which may soon turn to combating the Daesh presence in Afghanistan more directly after the Daesh territorial holdings in Iraq and Syria are eliminated.

However, by reducing military operations without negotiating with the Afghan government, the Afghan Taliban might encourage the U. S. to withdraw further or completely. At that point consolidating or extending their holdings in Afghanistan in opposition to a fragmented and ineffectual Afghan government should be relatively simple.