Okay, with only two days until Election Day and with more than of the eligible voters having already cast their votes, it’s time to start making our predictions about what will happen. I’m going to divide my remarks into Most Likely, Alternate, and Best Case scenarios. I think that Worst Case scenarios are impossible to predict. It can always be worse than you can imagine.
Most Likely Outcome
I think the most likely outcome is that the polls have been right all along and Joe Biden is elected, possibly with an electoral landslide and a clear majority of the popular vote. Although that will be clear on election night, it won’t be certified in a number of states for weeks and there will be a flurry of cases filed in court by both campaigns. There will be some violence in American cities.
Democrats will retain control of the House, possibly gaining a few seats and take control of the Senate, probably by just one seat.
Once President Biden is sworn in there will be a sort of feeding frenzy among progressives in Washington. Parts of the Green New Deal will be enacted into law, the Affordable Care Act will be expanded, and a “stimulus” package will be enacted. All of this will work out well especially for elected officials including such Republican elected officials who remain, professionals (doctors, lawyers, accountants, and college professors) but possibly not so well for everybody else. There will be an attempt at restoring the status quo ante in foreign policy. It won’t be successful; that ship has sailed.
I can’t speculate on what the “lame duck” period will look like.
Progressives will solidify their control over the national Democratic Party. Such Clintonistas as remain will be sidelined.
Alternate Outcome
This scenario is what might happen if the polls have drastically understated President Trump’s support. Trump wins an electoral victory, once again falling short of a popular vote majority. Although that will be clear on election night, it won’t be certified in a number of states for weeks and there will be a flurry of cases filed in court by both campaigns. There will be some violence in American cities.
Democrats will retain control of the House, possibly gaining a few seats, Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
A second Trump term will be just as chaotic as the first and much like it. The anti-Trump rhetoric will be much stronger.
Progressives and more moderate Democrats will blame each other for the loss. They will contend for control of the party.
Best Case Scenario
I think this scenario is extremely unlikely. Biden wins a narrow victory but that isn’t known until the Electoral College convenes or slightly before. There is no political violence during the week following the election or right up until inauguration.
Democrats retain control of the House; Republicans retain control of the Senate. That insulates the country from the worst instincts of the House leadership. Faced with four more years of a Trump presidency and a Senate opposed to them, Speaker Pelosi does the statesmanlike thing and decides to start working out compromises with the Senate.
President Biden is as good as his word and runs a conciliatory administration on behalf of all Americans. He improves on the Affordable Care Act and advocates for an infrastructure plan. His attempt to repeal the tax cuts of the Trump years are blocked by the Senate. Campaign rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding, he’s actually tougher on China than the Trump Administration was.
He serves a full four year term; news of his incompetence has been greatly exaggerated.
I recognize for some that this is far from the best case. For some the best case is like the Likely Outcome but more so. For others the best case would be like the Alternate Outcome but more so. I believe that we are one country not two countries or fifty. I believe that we are one country. A house divided against itself cannot stand.
What do you think will happen?
Think Biden will win narrowly and Trump will continue to hold rallies as long as court cases on vote tallies are pending.
Pelosi will be the most powerful person in Washington and be widely hated, even within her own party.
She will attempt to procecute Trump for whatever.
Of course if she DOES…
Trump will dominate the news coverage for another year.
Close result. No idea who really wins. I expect minimal violence. Pushing , shoving, some fights between groups of supporters. If Trump wins more scandals and corruption. More ruling by executive order. If Biden wins he will undo Trump’s executive orders. Not that much legislation will pass since the Senate will oppose everything and anything he does. It is how McConnell does things.
Steve
I think that if Biden wins, Democrats taking the Senate is practically assured. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball pretty much confirms that.
I’m uncomfortable predicting future outcomes, because it becomes a cross to bear when you’re wrong. However, with that risk in mind, I’ll posit that Trump will have another unexpected electoral win, possibly even besting Biden in the popular vote as well.
Even though the majority of polls say otherwise, I continue to watch the growing animated support that Trump gets all over the country. 57,000+ people attending yesterday’s Butler rally in PA. Other rallies have many thousands eager to hear from him, oftentimes waiting for hours in crowded overflow areas. 40-50% of people attending the most recent events are not republicans either – but have dem, Indy affiliations, or have infrequently voted or not ever voted before. These numbers don’t show up in conventional polling tallies.
Then you have the pop-up boat, vehicle, people events occurring everywhere: a 97 mile train of cars in southern AZ, 30,000 Latinos getting in their vehicles in FL, small to massive boat flotillas – I’ve never seen so many events springing up for the election of one man.
Finally, there is a possible upheaval in the numbers of AA and Hispanic votes that are switching over to Trump, along with endorsements from folks these groups look up to. His actions with the black community have been largely ignored by the MSM, and, according to Trafager, after their enumeration during the final debate, this polling Co. saw a steady rise in support. lil Wayne’s endorsement, touting the Platinum Plan, was also another “influencer†permitting young’s blacks to reconsider which party helped them the most.
Since I’m going out on a limb, I might as well admit to believing the Senate will hold too, and there will be a number of House seat pick-ups, as straight party voting seems to be more of the norm recently, rather than splitting the ticket.
This is an area in which I fail to understand the Democratic leadership’s thinking. A majority of the rank and file of the Democratic Party are not progressives and a considerable proportion of blacks and Hispanics are, in fact, social conservatives. IMO the “you ain’t black” strategy is ill-conceived.
I will make my predictions later.
But I will comment the campaign has been a bizarro repeat of 2016.
– The unrest in the summer.
– Vast majority of polls show Trump to lose in an electoral landslide.
– An email scandal involving the Democratic candidate.
– Charges of corruption against the Democratic candidate.
– Charges of ill health against Hillary and Biden
– Ill conceived comments by Hillary (“deplorableâ€) Biden (“transition from fossil fuelâ€)
– Allegations of Russian interference
– Scandalous revelation of Trumps taxes around beginning of Sept
– Trump is judged to have a terrible first debate
– Just before the second debate; an event occurs that seemed to finish off Trump (Access Hollywood; Trump gets COVID)
– The third debate moderator is praised for a restrained debate
– Trump and his trademark rallies.
– A Supreme Court nomination in the air
– Even the last rally of the campaign is the same; Grand Rapids for Trump; a Philadelphia concert for Clinton/Biden.
Is there some unconscious desire to keep replaying 2016?
That’s easy to explain. People, politicians included and maybe even in particular, are strongly predisposed to keep doing what has succeeded for them in the past. That includes Trump.
Even the Democratic primary was a bizarro replay.
The eventual winner loses in Iowa; blown out in New Hampshire; wins in South Carolina and then the party just coalesces and forces out Bernie Sanders.
In 2016; it was literal rigging of the DNC; in 2020 every candidate other then Bernie just quits and endorses Biden right after the SC primary.
Also; Hillary didn’t visit Wisconsin, Biden does not visit anywhere.
What is puzzling to me is why Democrats are doing their part in this replay as well.
If OMB wins:
ANTIFA/BLM/Black Bloc will go completely apes**t with insane rage and try to burn dozens if not hundreds of cities to the ground, causing tens if not hundreds of billions of damage. Many lives will be lost. Vigilante shootings will show a significant uptick.
If Harris wins:
ANTIFA/BLM/Black Bloc will go completely apes**t with delirious joy and try to burn dozens if not hundreds of cities to the ground, causing tens if not hundreds of billions of damage. Many lives will be lost. Vigilante shootings will show a significant uptick.
Conclusion: Anybody living near an urban center should stay the f**k home and be prepared to defend your lives and the lives of your loved ones. Be prepared for power outages, unavailability of food, etc. etc. This is effectively a CAT-2 plus hurricane situation.
My prediction is an eventual OMB win, decisively in the Electoral College, that will take at least until close to December 14 to litigate. The Supremes will be busy. The talking heads will continuously shriek that OMB stole another election because their polls couldn’t possibly have been wrong.
I think Biden will win easily and I don’t think it will be close. I’d guess by at least 6-7 million votes if not more. I don’t follow the state EC horse-race so don’t know how that will translate to electoral votes, but it will be more than enough to get him to 270.
Most everyone seems to be fighting the last war (2016), especially Trump, partisans, and the media. But it ain’t 2016.
A lot of people in 2016 were on the fence until the last minute – in this election almost no one is – I think it’s only 2-3% now while in 2016 is was 11-12%. Trump was able to win by having enough of these people to break for him in a few key states. That’s simply not going to happen this year with so few undecideds.
Polling isn’t the same as 2016. Pollsters have adjusted their methods to account for white working-class voters and pollsters are highly motivated to preserve their own credibility by not making the same mistake twice. I wouldn’t be surprised if the polls end up overestimating Trump’s support.
Combined with Trump doing even worse in the polls now than vs Clinton and it’s hard to see how either bad polling or breaking undecideds can save him.
Relatedly, a lot of people were disgusted with both candidates and voted third party. Gary Johnson and the Libertarians got a historic 4.5 million votes. Third parties overall grabbed ~5% of the vote in 2016 – that’s unlikely to be repeated in 2020 for a variety of reasons.
Also related is that Trump is now a known quantity.
Biden doesn’t have any of Clinton’s negative baggage and unpopularity. The anti-Clinton vote we saw in 2016 won’t be there.
Trump has run a terrible campaign. The attempt to make the China-Biden laptop thing a scandal came way too late, it doesn’t have anything that actually touches Joe Biden to any significant degree but even more than that, there aren’t the large number of undecided voters that something like this might sway. Trump has been great at pandering and motivating a small base, but he’s also alienated constituencies he needs. Plus I think there is just a lot of Trump fatigue.
Covid rates are going up in many parts of the country and Trump’s approval rating for handling Covid has been negative since May. A solid majority of Americans think he has done a bad job managing the most salient issue in 2020 and that is hurting Trump. This makes the whole Biden Laptop gambit look even more stupid.
Biden has run an OK campaign and hasn’t made and really stupid mistakes – again, unlike Clinton in 2016. And he’s a lot more popular than Clinton with some key Democratic demographics that didn’t turn out well for her.
All in all, I think the election is heavily weighted toward Biden and he should win easily.
Purely anecdotal. This deals with the First District here in SC.
Both Jaime Harrison and Joe Cunningham are Dems running in SC. Cunningham in the 1st District against Nancy Mace. He was an upset winner last time, running as a moderate.
Early polls had both Cunningham and Harrison well ahead. But……
Cunningham is a one trick pony. He voted against off shore drilling. Popular. Otherwise, he’s a Nancy P clone. Nice guy, though. It appears the race is very tight now.
Jaime Harrison is falling behind. He’s a slobbering Clinton/Pelosi sychophant. He’s gotten tens of millions out of state. He’s now trying a split the vote campaign in his ads, splitting Graham and an uber conservative (who has actually withdrawn) named Bledsoe.
I think these could be two Canary elections.
My first comment was 4 years ago for predicting the 2016 election; I pointed to Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll as an indicator that MN, WI, MI, OH, PA was much closer then analysts and polls had it; and that the Southwest (TX, AZ) was shifting Democratic (but not enough for Hillary to win those states).
Now for predicting this election.
I am going to try to analyze with minimal use of the polls – because it is impossible to prove beforehand the polls have fixed the methodological issues they saw in 2016.
The first observation in unlike 2016, the fundamental feature of the 2020 election is there is an incumbent President, Trump. I looked at the past 130 years and looked at Presidents who won election, attempted reelection and did not get reelection. Here’s the list of Presidents (George HW Bush – 1992, Jimmy Carter – 1980, Lyndon Johnson – 1968, Harry Truman – 1952, Hebert Hoover – 1932, Taft – 1912, Harrison – 1892).
There is a common fact for every one of these Presidents (except perhaps Hoover) who lost a bid for reelection; they had a vigorous challenge in their party’s nomination and/or had a credible 3rd party candidate.
Challenged Nomination 3rd Party
Bush Yes – Buchanan Yes – Perot
Carter Yes – Kennedy Yes – Anderson
Johnson Yes – McCarthy N/A – Quit
Truman Yes – Kefauver N/A – Quit
Hoover Maybe* No
Taft Yes – Roosevelt Yes – Roosevelt, Debs
Harrison No Yes – Weaver
*Hoover lost the majority of R primaries that were held, but primaries were not used to determine the nominee.
For all the talk about alienated Republicans, Trump did not face a challenge in the primaries, and in most cases got more votes in the primaries in 2020 vs 2016. And there is no credible 3rd party candidate in 2020. Trump looks safe from this indicator.
Besides split party / 3rd party, another regular feature of losing incumbents is a major domestic / foreign policy crisis.
Domestic crisis Foreign policy crisis
Bush Some – recession of 1991 No
Carter Yes — inflation Yes – Iran
Johnson Yes — riots Yes – Vietnam
Truman No? Yes – Korea
Hoover Yes – Great Depression No
Taft No No
Harrison No No
From the debates, there is no foreign policy crisis. There is a domestic crisis; coronavirus.
Which gets to coronavirus. It meets the definition of the type of crisis that sink Presidents; but looking at a deep level, I am not sure how it effects voting intentions. Because while there is deep unhappiness with the crisis, there is no agreement for the more activist government alternative that Democrats argue for. Also, Trump split the “activist†or “non-activist†argument by supporting economic aid; but being anti-lockdown.
i.e. Lockdowns are so unpopular that Joe Biden states repeatedly he would not lockdown a 2nd time. The refusal of Illinois restaurants to close on a governor’s orders, etc.
It is clear he is on sync with Republican officials and Republican voters on this – By and large, Republican governors and state legislatures are choosing the same approach. I think this is a big difference from 1932.
Finally, the actual state of game. Looking at Florida and Nevada, the early voting looks like Republicans and Democrats are turning out in roughly the same proportion as 2016, with Democrats having a slight larger numerical lead based on party registration and with early votes a bigger percentage of the overall vote. That is a good sign for Democrats but the remaining election day vote looks to be even more Republican then 2016, so the 2 biggest factor in determining the election (1) how many republican registered voters are crossing for Biden and (2) how big is the election date vote.
My best prediction is the Presidential race is again very close.
Some other things I’m looking at tomorrow that maybe of interest.
1. Will the graduated tax championed by the Illinois Governor pass
2. What’s the percentage that John James receives in Wayne County, and Kim Klacik receives in MA-7. They will get the minority of votes but it should indicate how open African Americans are to actual competition between the parties for their votes
3. The result of California 16; which repeals a ban of affirmative action.
4. The overall turnout in New York City. The early voting indicates what maybe a serious drop in the population of the city.
I suspect that Pritzker’s “Fair Tax” constitutional amendment will pass and that every criticism that has been lodged about it will actually happen. As Shaw said, when you rob Peter to pay Paul you can always depend on the support of Paul.
Not only do I think that New York’s population has declined sharply, I think the same will be found to be true of many Northern and Eastern cities. I expect New York State, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois to lose at least one district each in the coming reapportionment. Possibly California, too.