At 1945 Daniel Goure advises that NATO must do five things “to deter a dangerous Russia”:
- The United States, UK, should deploy “heavy forces” in Eastern Europe
- Rebuild its land warfare capabilities
- Accelerate the delivery of F-35s to the countries that have ordered them
- Expand ground-based air and missile defense
- Modernize all three legs of the Strategic Triad
Of those I certainly agree with the fifth. The first four strike me more as “convince Russia they’re right to fear NATO aggression” than deterring a dangerous Russia.
On #2 I question whether, for example, the U. S. should invest in an extensive tank capability. I think that countries should suit their military capabilities to their needs. The U. S., UK, and France need modernized and durable navies and air capabilities. Powerful navies make less sense for Germany, Czechia, and Slovakia (just to name three). I also should repeat a point I’ve made before: having our NATO allies rebuild their militaries requires a change of doctrine. Otherwise as we stand up they will inevitably stand down.
The bitter irony of all of this is that the steps our NATO allies should take are what they should have been doing all along. We might want to think about why they haven’t.
With respect to revitalizing our nuclear deterrent, its most important aspect is that prospective enemies must be convinced we will use nuclear weapons. We’ve spent the last 30 years discouraging that, assuming, incorrectly that the world was a safe place and nuclear war was unthinkable. We need to start thinking about it again and be resolved that we may need to use nuclear weapons. Without that there is no deterrent.
