The year-on-year inflation rate in Venezuela is anticipated to be around 2,300% in 2018. Shortages of basic staples are worsening. Its oil industry, responsible for nearly all foreign exchange, is collapsing. The opposition is boycotting the upcoming presidential election.
What happens in Venezuela? How long will the Maduro government be able to hold out? What’s the end game there? How will it affect Venezuela’s neighbors?
The pessimist in me says don’t expect change in Venezuela anytime soon. Robert Mugabe survived a decade after Zimbabwe had hyperinflation. The news stories I read indicate people are now so consumed with survival they do not have the energy to think about protests, revolutions.
Venezuela’s neighbors will not force the situation; they won’t want to be responsible for fixing Venezuela. They will absorb the refugee flows which is quite large… and growing.
Military coup?