Although I believe that Russia invading Ukraine was wrong and that we have been right in supporting the Ukrainians, I do wonder what happens to that support when the narrative that’s being pressed here in the U. S. collapses as it already shows signs of doing.
BTW I suspect that I am one of the few here who speaks with Ukrainians who are right in the area in which combat is taking place on a daily. We avoid speaking of the war.
In 2014, the US removed the legitimate government of Ukraine, and installed the current Nazi junta. That junta then unleashed a genocidal against ethnic Russian, and 8 years it bombed and shelled civilians in the Donbas.
The junta has banned all opposition political parties, imprisoned their leaders, and closed down their papers and radio and tv stations. There is strict censorship of speech.
The US provoked this war as a means of destroying the Russian state and partitioning Russia into small, easily manipulated statelets. It is another at what was attempted during Yeltsin’s administration. The over all project continues to fail, and it has had the side effect of crippling the European economies. That might actually have intended.
You should also remember that in March, 2022, representatives of Ukraine and Russia negotiated and initialed a cease fire that would have implemented the Minsk agreements, and kept Donbas in Ukraine. The US sent Boris Johnson to Kiev to stop the agreement, which he did.
So now Russia’s objectives are to remove the junta and install a friendly regime, to denazify Ukrainian politics and society, to demilitarize Ukraine, and to keep Ukraine out of NATO. How much of Ukraine Russia will annex remains to be seen, but probably all territories with large Russian populations.
The US has started some 250+ wars and military interventions, at least 80% of the total number, since 1945. We are the principal, almost only, aggressor/terrorist state in the world. We killed some 1.5 million civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq. The destruction of Libya in one of the egregious war crimes in history. We did that. Our invasion/war in Somalia is over 30 years old and ongoing the longest foreign war in our history.
In Ukraine, we are the bad guys, and Russia is the good guy.
It depends on what “support collapses†means in practice. I doubt it will totally collapse causing an end to most or all support. I think it’s more likely to settle into a level that ensures Ukraine can’t lose and also can’t win.
Andy:
It’s the narrative that I think will collapse rather than our support for Ukraine. What sort of things in the narrative? That Russia’s economy is collapsing (Russia’s economy has been collapsing for the last 200 years), that Russia can’t resupply itself with missiles (that’s not happening), that the sanctions are working, that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is effective, etc.
At this point, if the “narrative” collapses due to facts on the ground; it is more likely the US will redouble our commitment to anything (including troops on the ground) short of a nuclear exchange than to attempt to cut “investment” losses and negotiate.
That’s because the only domestic political actor currently positioned to gain from a collapse of the Ukraine narrative is Trump. And we know Biden, Democrats, and a chunk of Republicans would do a lot to keep Trump out of power.
After Nov 2024, that could be a different story.
“Troops on the ground” will end up with a nuclear exchange. If anyone doubts that it means that deterrence has failed.
If we are talking about narratives, many narratives have collapsed and been forgotten. But new ones take their place or the old ones are recycled with new clothes.
Also, if you look at our experience in Afghanistan (where narratives came, went, were forgotten, came again, went again, were forgotten again, came back a third time, etc.) this cycle can go on for a long time.
Look at the Viet Nam war. My Lai and the Tet offensive certainly changed the narrative but it still took us 5 years to end the war. The Pentagon Papers changed the narrative even further and it still took 2 years to end the war. That was in a war where we lost over 58,000 lives and many more injured. In this effort we arent losing lives and the actual expenditures arent that large for us.
Steve