The results of some early term special elections are in. After pre-election columns yesterday wondering if Republicans were expecting a “Blue Wave”, the opinion writers at major media outlets are touting the election of a progressive judge in Wisconsin despite Elon Musk’s campaigning for her opponent and two Republican Congressmen in Florida to replace two Republican Congressmen in Florida as a success for the Democrats.
Michelle Cottle at the New York Times
Karen Tumulty at the Washington Post
That looks like a maintenance of the status quo ante to me. How bad must things be for the Democrats if maintaining the status quo is a victory?
The Republicans candidates in the special elections did underperform the November general election results by quite a bit.
But it wasn’t the Alabama Senate special election in 2017; where the Democrats did pull a sizable upset win. And the practical effect is the opposite of 2017 where it narrowed Republican margins in the chamber that was harder for Republicans to manage; last night combined with the passing of 2 Democratic congressman has made Speaker Johnson’s job the easiest since he ascended to the speakership.
I don’t know what to make of the Wisconsin results. Elections of State Supreme Court judges are different from election to State Governor or Congress; but maybe it is given how partisan it got at the end. I don’t know if making State Supreme Court justices elected on such partisan basis is a good idea.
Musk and Trump put in time and Elon’s money on the Wisconsin election. Likely means Wisconsin gets gerrymandered in the opposite direction so then when the vote keeps getting split about 50-50 the Dems get 6 of the 8 congresspeople rather than the Republicans. Congress is pretty tight so it’s significant.
Steve
I agree that this was mostly a status quo election result. Yes, the margins were more blue, but this is due to a shift in voter propensity. When I was young (80’s and 90’s), Republicans had the higher propensity voters (more college educated and higher incomes). Now Democrats are the high propensity voters for the same reasons. Back then, Republicans outperformed in midterms while Democrats tended to perform better in the presidential elections. Republicans significantly outperformed in special elections. Based off of demographic shifts, I expect Democrats to perform well in 2026 as turnout will be lower. Their performance will be misinterpreted as a validation of their policies and they will walk into 2028 unprepared.
steve: Likely means Wisconsin gets gerrymandered in the opposite direction so then when the vote keeps getting split about 50-50 the Dems get 6 of the 8 congresspeople rather than the Republicans.
Wisconsin Democrats have consistently opposed extreme gerrymanders that undermine the Wisconsin constitutional right to equal protection.
Meh. The out party usually wins midterms. However, this took place during what is normally the honeymoon period so under normal circumstances maybe you expect the in party to do better. As such, it kind of suggests that Trump actions arent all that popular. Wisconsin election is probably more about Musk. It may dawning on the GOP that having the richest guy in the world, who is a reckless shi%poster, firing lots of people pretty randomly and lying about the numbers so much was maybe not a good idea.
Steve