Here’s Karl Rove’s take on the 2024 election from his op-ed in the Wall Street Journal:
A May 24 Quinnipiac University poll put Mr. Biden ahead of Mr. Trump, 48% to 46%, among registered voters and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ahead of Mr. Biden, 47% to 46%. While these results point to a horse race in 2024, numbers deeper in the poll suggest Mr. Biden is in a precarious spot.
By 65% to 32%, registered voters think Mr. Biden is “too old to effectively serve another 4-year term.†This includes 69% of independents, 73% of whites with no college degree, 72% of men, 66% of voters 35 to 49 and 65% of those 50 to 64. Even 41% of Democrats agree, as do 47% of blacks, 75% of Hispanics, and 75% of voters under 35.
What over the next 18 months could improve these numbers? Democrats can’t keep Mr. Biden from constantly losing his train of thought or tripping over sandbags or stairs. Even if they could re-create his 2020 basement campaign, it wouldn’t change what voters already know.
Similarly, in the May 22 Fox News Poll, 64% said Mr. Biden wasn’t “a strong leader.†That stance is supported by 69% of whites, 65% of voters under 35, 75% of independents, 59% of Hispanics and 46% of blacks. Only 64% of Democrats believe their party’s nominee is a strong leader.
After 2½ years in office, what could alter that opinion before the election? Maybe an inspired response to a national crisis? It’s more likely Democrats and the country will get another year and a half of watching an increasingly feeble president.
This suggests that it will be essential for Team Biden to irradiate his GOP opponent to eke out a victory. As Mr. Biden often quotes his father, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.†A Trump-led Republican Party will mimic the Democratic smash-mouth playbook. None of this is good for America, which needs its national confidence restored, not further eroded.
I don’t think the Democrats have that much to worry about. Mr. Trump is self-irradiating.
Since Biden has decided to run, Democrats have no other choice. Our weak parties mean the only way to challenge him would be to run against Biden in the primary, which would tear the party apart and weaken it for the general election. It’s a safer bet for Democrats to hope Biden stays healthy, that Trump is the candidate, and that Trump shoots himself politically, even more than he has.
If DeSantis or someone else manages to get the nomination, I think – at this point – the Republicans probably win, and Biden’s age becomes a decisive factor.
If Trump wins the nomination, we’ll again be faced with two candidates that the public doesn’t like and doesn’t think should be President. Helluva way to run a railroad.
Agree with Andy but I actually laughed where Rove says Trump would mimic the smash mouth Democrats. Does anyone alive really believe that Trump has been restrained or civil in his approach to politics? When has he not been smash mouth or worse?
Steve