The editors of the Washington Post open their reaction to Assad’s ouster by telling the truth:
To Mr. Assad we say: Good riddance. The speed of his downfall is testament to the illegitimacy of his awful rule, marked by mass executions, torture and support for terrorism. During the past 13-plus years of civil war, the regime depended on Russia, which carried out devastating airstrikes, Iran and its Lebanese proxy group, Hezbollah. But Russia had withdrawn troops for its war with Ukraine, Hezbollah has been decimated by its war with Israel, and Iran, also weakened by clashes with Israel, wrote off Mr. Assad.
For Syrians, the nightmare of Mr. Assad’s misrule is finally over. But euphoria over his ouster must be tempered by questions over what comes next.
It might be tempting to assume that anything is better than Mr. Assad. That would be a mistake. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the main rebel group behind the current offensive, is an al-Qaeda offshoot that once had links to the Islamic State. Deemed a terrorist organization by the United States, HTS is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who fought U.S. troops in Iraq. Mr. Jolani has lately been trying to project a more moderate image and convince Syrians that all ethnic groups would be welcome in the post-Assad Syria. In the Idlib region of northwestern Syria, which it controls, HTS has provided protections for women and religious minorities but has also been accused of human rights abuses and authoritarian rule.
They also ask some of the right questions. Will the post-Assad Syria be pluralistic? Will there be retribution against old regime officials or the military?
As to their assertion that Syria is in the U. S. interest, it’s in the U. S. interest because we’ve been aiding our own enemies. They’ve already explained why that’s unlikely to turn out well. Let’s hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.
I also note that the word “Alawite” does not appear once in the editorial. Here’s their conclusion:
The Middle East badly needs a success story: a pluralistic, democratic Arab country committed to upholding human rights. For more than 50 years, Syria under the Assad family regime epitomized so much that is wrong about the region. With engaged diplomacy, the United States can help write a brighter next chapter for this strategically located, and long-suffering, country.
Its not a bad editorial.
I don’t think “a pluralistic, democratic Arab country” is realistic for Syria — but an Iraq, Egypt is perhaps achievable. The US interest is ensure Syria doesn’t turn into a pre-2001 Afghanistan, a new round of civil war, more refugees and then becomes a base for exporting Islamic extremism.
To that end, the US’s main lever is sanctions relief.
The other lesson is overreach can happen to other countries too. Did Iran think about the risks of pushing Israel back against the wall.
You’re right. It’s not a bad editorial. But it has an awful lot of wishful thinking. I think that chaos is a more likely outcome than a pluralistic democratic country.
Consider the ethnic/confessional factions:
Shi’a Arabs (mostly Alawites)
Sunni Arabs
Christians (mostly Assyrians)
Druze
Sunni Kurds
Yezidi Kurds
Sunni Turks
The largest single group, possibly a majority although certainly a plurality, are Sunni Arabs. What unites the various rebel groups? Hatred of the Assad government. They’ll keep fighting that for a while and it will be unifying force.
Then what? Will the Sunni Arabs start killing Alawites? Kurds? Assyrians?
I excuse some of the wishful thinking simply because no one knows what’s going to happen.
Uniting the country will be challenging, however, simply because of all the foreign involvement, which isn’t going away anytime soon.
Why I never blamed Bashar Assad, the second choice son, optometrist, and reluctant ruler of a fractious nation.
The British drew the maps that constitute the national borders we now insist are sacrosanct, why do we do that?
The prevailing view in America today is that we do this because we want to sell weapons to all of the contesting parties in the region.
Prove me wrong.
The French actually drew the particular map in question but your point is well-taken.
WAPO quietly passes over the main point, that HTS, like ISIS and other al-Qaeda affiliates and derivatives, is actively supported by the US, despite the fact that the US has a bounty out on al-Joulani of $10 million.
The irony today is that HTS appears to be offering negotiations to Russia over its bases in Latakia. Considering just how duplicitous HTS’s American, Israeli, and Turkish supporters are, a side deal with Russia is a good hedge against future betrayals, which are guaranteed to happen, and already have.
Also today, the US and Israel are systematically destroying the left over Syrian military equipment and facilities. This is the first of the betrayals, strip the new government of the ability to defend itself.
Also today, Israel has seized Quneitre and the surrounding territory and the hills overlooking Damascus. Eretz Israel progresses.
Also today, the US is bombing all the noncompliant (to US) Arab insurgents who were fighting Assad’s government.
Everyone is waiting for the Turkish shoe to drop.
The prospect for a moderate, stable Syria are much greater with the tyranny of the majority (74% Sunni Arab) than the tyranny of the minority (10% Alawite), if tyranny it is to be.
The Alawites don’t consider themselves Shi’ites. Eight years ago, their religious leaders issued a statement distancing themselves from Iran and from Assad and the regime’s atrocities. It was one of the positive events that made a cycle of reprisals less likely.
Russia just lost its warm water port. I think history will harshly rate Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. As far as Syria goes they should all lose as there aren’t manny good options. If the new govt represents 75% of people instead of 15 then I suspect it treats more people better but the minorities probably suffer. (Better being a relative term. )
Steve
Sevastopol?
Maybe you mean Latakia. Keep watching. Don’t be surprised if the Russians keep their base there.
An angle to be considered is the reliance of the Assad regime on the production and distribution of captagon ( a form of methamphetamine) for revenue.
To the extent that this network is curtailed, I’d say good riddance, as a region composed of competing fanatical religious sects who’s youth are marinating in Chrystal meth is a bad mix.
sects