Virus Time

Michael Gerson believes, as I do, that more resources need to be mobilized faster to stem the Ebola epidemic in West Africa:

Until there is a vaccine, limiting the spread of Ebola depends on education and behavior change. People must be persuaded to do things that violate powerful human inclinations. A parent must be persuaded not to touch a sick child. A relative must be persuaded not to respectfully prepare a body for burial. A man or woman with a fever must be persuaded to prepare for the worst instead of hoping for the best. This is the exceptional cruelty of Ebola — it requires human beings to overcome humane instincts for comfort, tradition and optimism. And this difficult education must come from trusted sources in post-conflict societies where few institutions have established public trust.

The Ebola virus has sometimes been like a fire in a pine forest — burning in hidden ways along the floor before suddenly flaring. There are, perhaps, 12,000 Ebola cases in West Africa. The World Health Organization warns there may be 5,000 to 10,000 new cases each week by December. This would quickly overwhelm existing and planned health capacity (1,700 proposed beds in Liberia from the U.S. military, perhaps 1,000 beds in community care centers).

At this level of infection, the questions become: Is Ebola containable? Will we see disease-related hunger? How will rice crops be harvested and transported? What effects will spiking food prices have on civil order? Might there be large-scale, disease-related migration? What would be the economic effects on all of Africa? Many are still refusing to look at these (prospective) horrors full in the face.

See also the handy infographic that accompanies the column linked above.

The epidemic is not operating in U. S. government time but in virus time. By the time we have accomplished the tasks we have set for ourselves in West Africa they will already be obsolete. We need to do more faster. And that means we can’t do it alone.

If only there were a government official charged with negotiating with foreign governments!

2 comments… add one
  • steve Link

    By all reports, we have been pushing other countries to do more. If only other governments would just do what we tell them. (I think it is pretty clear most people don’t care about Africans dying. They need to be convinced that it is in their own self interest to get involved. Not many will buy into that until things get worse.)

    Steve

  • If only other governments would just do what we tell them.

    steve, you are not that great a fool. There is more to encouraging cooperation than telling people what to do. It requires creating trust, laying a groundwork, effort, a sense of urgency, and doing what’s necessary to get the job done.

    I think it is pretty clear most people don’t care about Africans dying. They need to be convinced that it is in their own self interest to get involved.

    How does condemning anyone who believes more strenuous action is needed as “panicking” or mocking them by calling them “bed-wetters” contribute to convincing Americans that Ebola needs to be confronted in West Africa?

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