There’s one thing on which Walter Russell Mead and William A. Galston agree in their pieces on the situation in Afghanistan: Biden has screwed up in his handling of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Mr. Galston proposes three steps to remediate the situation:
-
Step one: Honor our commitments to our friends in Afghanistan.
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Step two: Do everything possible to repair relations with our allies.
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Step three: Do what is necessary to restore the credibility of American security guarantees.
while Dr. Mead see the situation as emblematic of something deeper:
The Afghan debacle doesn’t create a crisis of belief in American military credibility. Informed global observers don’t doubt our willingness to strike back if attacked. The debacle feeds something much more serious and harder to fix: the belief that the U.S. cannot develop—and stick to—policies that work.
He provides an explanation of the source of the problem:
Americans tend to look at foreign policy in partisan terms. Democrats think Republicans are the problem and vice versa. This isn’t how it looks from abroad. To many overseas observers, the 21st century has seen mostly unsuccessful U.S. responses to challenges from China, Russia and Iran even as global issues like climate change, refugee and migrant flows, and the pandemic intensify. From this perspective, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden all seem to have failed; and from the invasion of Iraq to the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the story of American foreign policy since 9/11 looks even to friendly eyes like one of continuing and perhaps now accelerating drift and decline.
I don’t believe that it’s possible to effect Mr. Galston’s three step program while maintaining President Biden’s deadline for removing our forces from Afghanistan, something I can’t imagine happening. It would mean he would have screwed up twice with one policy which I doubt would bolster his popular support.
And I find it surprising that Dr. Mead doesn’t recognize the source of the problem with our foreign policy. After all he wrote a book about it. Our foreign policy is an emergent phenomenon which the professionals in the State Department, DoD, and intelligence agencies mistakenly believe they control. They don’t control it but they can be pretty successful in impeding the president’s ability to implement his own policies.
I don’t believe that our foreign policy will improve until the voters start considering foreign policy more important in their selection of a president which on a first approximation will be never.
Still have not seen anyone suggest a plan that would have avoided chaos. In particular not sure I agree that we have an obligation to make sure all Americans get out. If an American is there because they thought they could stay and make some last minute money rather than following the issued advice to leave I dont think we have a big obligation towards them. If they can make it to the airport in time then we get them out. We dont risk more lives to try to get them out.
Steve
“Still have not seen anyone suggest a plan that would have avoided chaos”
On the other hand — we have not seen what options Biden was presented with on Afghanistan, or even the options on the details of the withdrawal. Suggesting that the only way to withdraw was how the Biden administration executed it is premature. Congressman Schiff (not one with an axe to grind against Biden) stated he didn’t think there was an intelligence failure; it seems unlikely there weren’t a table of options (or actions) suggested based on intelligence of a high possibility for a rapid collapse of the Afghan government.
As to US citizens in Afghanistan; my personal take is a large proportion are not related to the US government or military contractors (I believe most or all were withdrawn before the collapse). That this large proportion are dual Afghan-American nationals; who were in Afghanistan to visit family or just normally live there. What are US government obligations to dual nationality citizens in the country of their other citizenship is a complicated matter….
An anecdote that suggests my intuition that there are many dual national Afghan-Americans in Afghanistan is this story
https://nypost.com/2021/08/25/23-california-students-stuck-in-afghanistan-after-summer-trip/
Its not remarked much in media, but after a 20 year presence in Afghanistan; there’s bound to be a large Afghan-American community; similarly a large Iraqi-American community.
@steve
Still have not seen anyone suggest a plan that would have avoided chaos.
As I stated three days ago:
I am not surprised that the befuddled old fool could not figure this out, but apparently, none of the appointed idiots could either.
As soon as it looked like we were really leaving the Afghan leaders left. Taliban moved in and the military folded. How do you extract US citizens and have the Afghan government remain in place and the Afghan military fight if needed?
CO- Another group I am not going to feel sorry about. Who takes a summer vacation in a country having a prolonged civil war?
Steve
Steve
@steve
You do not wait until the last minute to develop a contingency plan. Actually, your plan should not rely on the Afghan military.
As usual, I will go through this slowly. In order to extract civilians, you need an airbase, and the airbase needs to be properly manned and equipped. Since you were in the Air Force, you know that you need to increase troops to pull-out.
For air operations, there needs to be a search & rescue capability for potentially downed aircraft. The base needs a dedicated security force. There needs to be manned outposts outside the base on high ground and other tactical locations.
Apparently, President Biden and his Cabinet have no problem planning to transform soldiers into social justice warriors.
If it were a Republican president, I doubt you would be so apologetic.
With regards to dual nationals. Biden made a choice to say he would “evacuate all Americans who wanted to leave” regardless of whether the US government was responsible for them being in Afghanistan.
Now I understand Biden has had to make a series of “damned if you do, damned if you don’t decisions” — but to put it bluntly, he made the decisions that put him at this point. If Biden doesn’t like the situation he’s been given, he shouldn’t have run for President. Biden knew Afghanistan was a rotten situation for whoever was President now when he ran for President last year.
Tasty,
Your comments have too much common sense for either the Biden Administration or Steve to understand. Abandoning Bagram was over the top stupid, as it was invaluable in evacuating people from the area. It also seemed like the enemy was notified before everyone else who needed to be evacuated. Leaving behind data in the abandoned embassy, with all the contact info of everyone who had helped the U.S., was equivalent to a death sentence for these people. BTW, what did Biden do right?
And, I 100% agree that if this were under a Republican Administration’s command, Steve would be up in arms with sarcastic criticism…and if Trump was making these lame, incompetent decisions, the caustic commentary would be looped 24/7.
Agree with TB. Why was our airbase abandoned before getting civilians out? Makes no sense at all. That should have been the last place to turn out the lights.
I’m curious what civilians were being told over the last few months. I have heard that in the last few weeks they were told to book flights out and many of the people now trapped there had done so but the travel dates were too late. If the withdrawal was planned back in April, how much notice were these people given?
One story I read about those CA students and families seemed to indicate they traveled as part of some sort of military program (it wasn’t clear- maybe these were Afghani families that were already here on SIVs?) If that’s the case it’s a total face slap that they sponsored this trip under the circumstances, and unconscionable if they don’t get them out.
@jan
Since he was in the Air Force, @steve is well aware of their capabilities. They could have Bagraham running in a few hours. I was part of the initial Somalia force. As soon as we took the airport, AF transport planes landed with their gear, and they were landing food shipments in a few hours.
(Never get in the way of an AF pilot landing a transport plane. They do not divert or pull-up, and they will run you over.)
BTW, what did Biden do right?
He has not worn his underwear on the outside of his pants. (If he does, Doctor Jill Biden would diagnosed the problem, and as a Doctor, she would perform an operation to correct it.)
@CStanley
It has been a while. I hope all is well with you and your family.
Tasty, I have always appreciated your sense of humor!
@jan
The next time you see President Biden standing up imagine he has a pair of tighty-whities on the outside. Even funnier is to imagine him holding a plate with two hands at the Golden Corral buffet with his tighty-whities on the outside. Now, Doctor Jill is putting chicken nuggets on his plate.
You will never see him the same, but you may need therapy.
Meade and Galston and their ilk are the problem.
Consider: Kosovo/Serbia, Somalia, Sudan, Mali, Afghanistan, Iraq, Georgia, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, Belarus…
on tap Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua…
What we have is a sordid history of American aggression against countries that were at peace with us. That is a list of war crimes of the same sort as those perpetrated by Hitler, Mussolini, and Tojo.
The fiasco in Afghanistan is happening because the American government is run by war criminals and war mongers. We will have repeated Kabuls as long as America is, itself, a rogue, terrorist state.
Look in the mirror.
You still haven’t answered the real question. Once we start evacuating US citizens there is no stronger signal we are leaving. What keeps the Afghan govt from bailing at that point and the Afghan military from turning over their guns and heading home? If the govt and military had stayed we would not be having a big problem, but they demonstrated what they would do once they were convinced we were serious about leaving. The Taliban also showed that they would move in right away. Your answer is simple, logical and wrong. I dont really know Bagram well enough to know how much it would have helped to keep it open. It might have, but then we would have still faced the issue of how to get people there.
“families seemed to indicate they traveled as part of some sort of military program”
Have not seen that. DOnt really care. If the military offered to sponsor my kids to a trip to North Korea I would say no thanks. Same with Afghanistan and several other places. At some point parents have to be responsible.
Steve
Steve is the most conservative guy on this blog today.
Rescue? Ha! Erik Prince is flying out all comers at $6,500 per ticket.
Extra charge for hotel shuttle service. That’s free enterprise.
@Steve
You still haven’t answered the real question. Once we start evacuating US citizens there is no stronger signal we are leaving
This question is absurd. Signal we’re leaving? We bugged out of Bagram and shut down the base in early July. I think that qualifies as the strongest signal we were leaving. I can think of no justification for doing this before getting civilians out, can you?
Now that does beg the question of why civilians remained after that happened, but I’d still fault Biden and his administration for their rhetoric in that regard. Their reassurances that Kabul wasn’t going to fall quickly didn’t match reality and didn’t give people an accurate understanding of the risk they were taking.
Now personally I think setting foot in Afghanistan is too high of a risk for me to consider at any point in my lifetime so it’s hard to wrap my head around people choosing to go and to remain there during this period. But I assume people had their reasons and whether I think they were justified or not it doesn’t negate the US government’s obligation to keep them informed.
@TB- all is well, thanks, and I had forgotten how much I enjoy your humor.
I know this is an analysis blog, not a news blog. But the inevitable has occurred. Large explosion outside the Karzai airport. # of dead or injured not known.
How do people get out of country now?
” I think that qualifies as the strongest signal we were leaving.”
Nope. We still had soldiers in the country. If Taliban or ISIS started attacking those civilians a pretty good bet we would bring military back too. Once the civilians are gone we have no real reason to stay anymore. The Afghans figured out a long time ago we weren’t turning the place into Sweden even if we didnt. Without civilians we weren’t going to leave troops to “nation build”.
” But I assume people had their reasons”
The stories publicized talk about visiting families. OK, go visit but its your risk. We really dont have to rescue everyone who does stupid stuff especially since they had months of warning.
Steve
Let’s hope this doesn’t veer towards a firefight between the Taliban + whoever caused the blast with US forces at the airport.
If the runway at the airport gets damaged it’s going to be a national nightmare trying to get the troops out.
Suicide bomber. Three (at least) US soldiers injured.
We weren’t going to stay, the Taliban knew we weren’t going to stay and the rest of the Afghans knew we weren’t going to stay. What the latter group didn’t know is that we were going to leave so abruptly.
It’s delusional to think that this administration was going to send troops back in, nor do I think they should have planned to do so. I’m really not following your reasoning on this at all.
As for the relative responsibility and obligations toward citizens in a war zone we’ll just have to agree to disagree. I’m not diametrically opposed to your views on this- these folks should not be surprised to find themselves at risk. But I do think they were lied to about the rapidly disintegrating conditions and that led some to think that booking flights in mid August was fine instead of making haste.
Explosion #2
Predictable, and predicted.
Will we get more happy talk from Admin today?
” If Taliban or ISIS started attacking those civilians a pretty good bet we would bring military back too.”
Jesus H Christ. So the calvary is coming now? Do you even think before you type? Taliban blocking all access to airport now. 13 dead (at least) and everyone now stuck.
Maybe they were mostly peaceful suicide bombers.
Not only did both gates that the UK and US were evacuating people from, suffer explosions, but gates have been welded shut as well. Supposedly this signals the Taliban have eliminated escape and rescue attempts.
Bob Sykes may rationalize this as American “karma.â€
Gray Shambler may mock someone like Eric Prince for “charging†people to pay for getting out. However, how much do you think it costs a private individual to fly in and fly out of a hot spot like Kabul? Would Gray take any amount of money to participate in such a mission?
Steve just sits on his Biden’s blind spot asking about what else could people have done, giving this incompetent president soft cover.
The bottom line – where has the US government been? Why are private individuals, Christian groups having to fill in for this botched Biden departure? Why is anything about this knee-jerk action, governed by the choices made by Biden and his generals, considered ok by anyone?
I wonder if Biden has called Peter Alexander yet……….
“I don’t believe that our foreign policy will improve until the voters start considering foreign policy more important in their selection of a president which on a first approximation will be never.”
With the breaking news I failed to note that. Unfortunately I suspect you are correct. We are more interested in the intramurals and in grabbing government cash.
Just remember something – in the last 18 months there have been no military fatalities. The last president wanted to stage this exit at a time when the Taliban would be least likely to engage. Bagram was not to be handed over, along with all our expensive equipment. And, any planning was subject to events on the ground and conversations with the Afghan government. None of this was part of Biden’s evacuation planning.
Instead, Biden made decisions supposedly against the counsel of his advisors. And, now there are at least 4 Marines killed, unknown numbers of people are left stranded and at the mercy of the Taliban, the US has become a joke in the eyes of the world, some of our allies are turning to Russia for help, and chaos, misery and “hostage helplessness†is the residual remaining after Biden’s “leadership skills†were activated and heeded.
I have opposed every use of force by the U. S. since about 1980 for both tactical, strategic, and geopolitical reasons. I don’t think that people realize how much blowback there has been. So, for example, the pretext for the terrorist attack on 9/11 was our stationing troops in Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the First Gulf War. Our bombing of Serbia and then our bringing down the Libyan government in combination convinced Russia and China we were a loose cannon. And so on.
@steve
I have always assumed the government & military would fall. If true, including them in the exit plan was even more incompetent. Perhaps, President Biden and his Cabinet should have sent social justice warriors. I am sure that the Taliban would be running in fear of pronoun usage.
I do not blame President Biden for the weapons and equipment “turn-over”. The Afghan military could not fight without weapons and equipment, but including them in the plan was insane. Actually, relying on anybody else was nuts.
You drop your trousers, shit, and wipe. Apparently, You & President Biden believe wipe, shit, and drop your trousers is the same. NEWSFLASH: The strange looks you get are from the foul odor emanating from your pants not your pronoun usage.
@CStanley
In order to withdraw troops, you need a surge. You need additional security for the egress point, and if you are going to evacuate civilians, you need security for them. You need medical and downed aircraft rescue capabilities. You need to secure a larger tactical perimeter.
Evacuation missions require security. For a strictly military convoy, it is provided by the personnel, but with civilians, it requires more. The same principal applies to air evacuations. They require additional escort aircraft for support and a backup capacity (extra empty helicopters).
There will need to be equipment and supplies for the planned timeframe (bullets, bandages, and beans). For the final military withdrawal, you do everything in reverse. The final forces will have minimal security, but unless you are a complete fool, you join the military knowing this.
@steve was in the military before it became a social justice experiment, and he is well aware of all of this.
“I have opposed every use of force by the U. S. since about 1980….”
I thought the Kuwait situation was unavoidable, but noted way back then that the correct strategic move was to eliminate our dependence on ME oil. And what was one of Biden’s first moves – he who is unable to change any Trump policy – stop our pipeline and let Russia finish theirs. Great.
I supported the second war under the theory that WMD were real. Maybe they were, but they sure did disappear easily. I was wrong.
But all this is water under the bridge. Only those interested in deflecting don’t understand that current issue was all about execution. And it has been absolutely horrible. Joe Biden never was, and is not, up to the task. His arrogance speaks volumes. I guess he won’t get his 9/11 photo op.
“Actually, relying on anybody else was nuts.”
And no doubt this was not a military calculation, but a political calculation. Just as the artificial deadline.
Now there are at least 4 dead soldiers. And how many civilians? (Que steve: Meh. if you are going to make an om……..) And this isn’t over yet. I guess its no longer irresponsible to say people have been stranded……..
TB- You believe in magic. Everyone sings kumbaya and holds hands nicely while we leave. Look, I know you dont really care. This just gives you a chance to take shots at Biden because he is a racist and eats babies, or whatever Q anon stuff you believe. I have consistently said here and elsewhere that no president was willing to leave because this is what was going to happen. There was no viable plan. Go visit the Middle East and spend some time there. I hear tickets to Afghanistan are cheap now. Bargain prices. The corruption and ineptitude makes the people in New Orleans look like saints.
Steve
And now its 10 soldiers.
That’s not even a nice try, steve. All kinds of experienced people who have served in multiple administrations (not to mention all the on the ground reporting) are absolutely shocked at the shoddy execution here. People willing to tell you exactly how it could have been better.
And you want us to believe some doc who slobbers over all things Democrat? The empirical evidence is in. Joe might want to consider listening to his advisors and limit his sarcastic guffaws.
I think there’s been way too much finger pointing and partisanship even though there’s more than enough blame to go around. I do think Biden owns the disastrous way this is unfolding- at least 10 marines dead as of this post.
That’s not to be mistaken for a belief that a withdrawal could have been done cleanly and I’m certainly not under delusions of people singing kumbaya. But if you look back at Biden’s statements going back to April, it seems that he and his team are the ones guilty of that kind of delusion.
Please do not also mistake this for partisan sniping as I do not believe an outcome would likely have been better during a second Trump term. I’m sure he’d have made different errors but I don’t expect a rosier scenario in that hypothetical.
If you set out to take Vienna, take Vienna. The price of George H. W. Bush’s First Gulf War coalition was stopping at Iraq’s borders, which led to the deaths of thousands of Iraqi Marsh Arabs, to the attacks on 9/11, and, ultimately, to where we are right now. It’s like a row of dominos. The way to avoid it is not to line the dominos up.
It was a matter of risk assessment. The assessment was that leaving Saddam Hussein in Kuwait was too high a risk. Yes, there was that risk. But they completely flubbed the risks of removing him from Kuwait. That is measured in more than 10,000 American lives and counting.
“I’m sure he’d have made different errors but I don’t expect a rosier scenario in that hypothetical.â€
I don’t think a rosy scenario would exist for any president who pulled out of Afghanistan. However, there are degrees of sloppiness and incompetence in such a pull- out, and Biden checked all the boxes in mastering the highest marks in how he managed and implemented this risky venture.
….and, we have yet to see the worse arising from the Biden Plan.
11 Marines, a Navy medic and dozens of “others†killed, including women, children, and Christians waiting to evacuate outside the Kabul Airport gates. People can disagree whether or not this could have been averted. Somehow, I think more foresight and better strategic planning would have done wonders to have muted some of the confusion, chaos and carnage.
“I do think Biden owns the disastrous way this is unfolding”
Totally agree. Whoever is in charge owns it. That’s why every other president avoided this. And it be clear, i never said this was done perfectly. I offered specific criticism of how they handled evacuating Afghans. I am sure it could have been better in some ways, but it wasting to be a disaster. At best we get a smaller disaster.
Steve
@steve
You believe in magic. Everyone sings kumbaya and holds hands nicely while we leave. ,,,
I guess President Obama was a magician. My opinion of him is not very high, but somehow, he was able to get out of Iraq without a US shitshow. He inherited a deal negotiated by the prior president, but he adjusted as necessary. Perhaps. the neanderthal military was not so bad.
To be clear, I do not blame him for what followed, and I fully expected Iraq to fall apart. I did not care then, and I do not care now. ISIS was a Saudi problem, and for all I know, they may run the country better.
I do blame President Obama for Libya and Syria. Because of Syria, ISIS became a US problem. Let me be clear. I do not care what happens in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, Australia, or France. I do care what happens in New Orleans, Chicago, Baltimore, NYC, L.A., Boise, Marksville, and Yazoo City.
… Look, I know you dont really care. …
I care about Americans. I care about the Afghanis stupid enough to hitch their wagon to the US. I care somewhat about our immediate neighbors (Mexicans, Canadians, Haitians, Jamaicans, Puerto Ricans). As long as the rest of the world leaves the US alone, I wish them the best, and if we can help without invading, I am willing to consider it.
You can take that any way you like.
… This just gives you a chance to take shots at Biden …
I would rather not bother with President Biden’s incompetence, but it is so spectacular that I must. I was not impressed with President, but except for Libya and Syria, I did not complain too much. NOTE: This puts me at odds with the people you constantly attempt to lump me in with.
(As I predicted, Obamacare did not cause the collapse of the health insurance industry, and doctors did not quit in droves. With a few exceptions, it is as worthless as I expected, but even that was not President Obama’s fault.)
… because he is a racist …
He is a well-documented senile, racist pedophile. “Befuddled fool” is my opinion, but it is supported by reality. Since I would like to believe he has never played nasty with little girls, pedophile may be a stretch. but “in his heart”, he is a pedophile.
… and eats babies, …
I have no idea what this is about. You are just throwing shit at the wall.
,,, or whatever Q anon stuff you believe. …
I have no idea what “QAnon” is, and I have no idea what “QAnon stuff” is. What I believe and write is original, and it is mostly based upon primary sources. Therefore, I rarely provide links, and you need to “QAnon” regarding “QAnon stuff”.
(Some time back, I tried to learn about Qanon, but Google did not provided any primary links, only opinion. Bing provided one link to a seemingly primary source, but if it was actually QAnon, there was no “stuff”. You must know the signs to be able to determine when QAnon is delivering a message. I guess it is like reading tea leaves.)
In any case, more shit thrown at the wall.
… I have consistently said here and elsewhere that no president was willing to leave because this is what was going to happen. There was no viable plan. …
Again, President Obama was able to do it with Iraq, but I guess that is because he is a magician.
You are just babbling and flailing, but at least, it was fecal matter free. Thanks, I guess.
… Go visit the Middle East and spend some time there. …
I spent seven months in the sand of Saudi and ten days in Kuwait. I was in Somalia, and I wound up in a whorehouse in Dubai. I have been to other shitholes in Asia.
Except for the last two weeks in Saudi & Kuwait, we provided our own security and services (burning trash & shitter drums). When we moved, we dug in, usually in the dark. Two weeks after President Bush (the Elder) issued the order, I deboarded a plane with a pack on my back and my weapon, and seven months later, I boarded a plane with a pack on my back and my weapon.
Somalia was a different shithole, but it was the same story. After we left, the Army took over, and I have no idea what happened. As soon as we saw the NGOs could not control a situation, the concertina wire came out, and order was quickly restored. (A cane or umbrella helps. It is a sign of authority.)
On this, you can go fuck yourself.
… I hear tickets to Afghanistan are cheap now. Bargain prices. …
Again, you are just babbling and flailing.
… The corruption and ineptitude …
It is irrelevant for a self-sustained operation.
… makes the people in New Orleans look like saints. …
This is two-in-one – shit thrown at the wall and incoherent babbling.
“If you set out to take Vienna, take Vienna.”
I think that domino scenario you lay out relies on too much speculation. However, my point was that I think we had no choice but to go in to Kuwait. And yes, if you set out to take Vienna………. We still seem to develop military strategy with an eye towards media coverage.
So Joe Biden said the words. We will track you down and kill you.
Um, Mr. President, how? You are doing so well so far……….
I think it was CO who said something about partisanship. We can speculate that 12 other Democrat presidents would have done better. We can speculate that Trump would have done worse. Its all rank speculation. What we have is Joe Biden and his performance.
Except for a tiny few MSNBC has dug up, (talk about partisan) the overwhelming view from all kinds and stripes is that this was bungled beyond all belief. Those with eyes know better. Those on the ground know better. Those with better judgment know better.
I’m late to this thread and haven’t read all the comments yet, but I’ll start here.
First, I think it depends on what you mean by “avoided chaos.” If it means that Afghanistan was never going to be a stable country and would descend into chaos after our departure, then I agree. If it means that the chaos of the present crisis was unavoidable, then I disagree.
The operation we’re currently doing in Afghanistan is called a NEO – Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation. The purpose of these operations is specifically to evacuate US government personnel (primarily embassy staff and families) along with US citizens. These plans are jointly produced by the DoD and State Department and there is one for every country on the planet. I used to help plan/update these for countries in Africa.
With that preamble, it’s important to consider that there are all types of Americans ranging from a born-and-raised in America American who is in a country temporarily to an American who has never set foot inside the USA. There are actually quite a number of US citizens around the world at that second extreme, who are legal US citizens but not really “American” as we understand it. Most are dual-nationals who have spent their whole life in whatever country they call home. And there is a whole spectrum of American citizens and legal residents in between those extremes.
During a NEO, any citizen has the option of leaving via the NEO forces. Many US citizens choose not to leave and usually the ones who don’t are those who have strong familial or other ties to the host country or are dual citizens with no real ties to the US. Embassies don’t know ahead of time who will want to go and who will want to stay and Embassies typically rely a lot on people registering with the embassy. But not everyone registers with the embassy though anyone who doesn’t in a country like Afghanistan is pretty stupid. The embassy also gets lists of Americans in a country who are there on official business such as contractors working for the US government.
The idea that there would be people who are delaying evacuation in order to “make money” seems dubious at best.
Regardless, in a NEO, the US government does have an obligation to try to evacuate any American (and allied nationals – we have agreements with allies that we will evacuate their citizens in a NEO), but that obligation isn’t limitless. There are obviously practical limits and also limits in terms of risk to the forces conducting the NEO.
Well, what you don’t do is publicly state that the Afghan government and military won’t fold for months or years. What you don’t do is make all your plans contingent on that assumption. We have Sec. Blinkin stating on TV in July that there will be plenty of time to get Afghans out, suggesting that the decade-long dorked-up SIV visa process delays weren’t that big a deal and would resolve in time.
Any planning, especially military planning, comes with assumptions. If those assumptions are questionable, then planners are supposed to do two things:
– Prepare contingency plans for when assumptions fail to materialize.
– Monitor indicators that will provide warning that the planning assumptions are not coming to pass.
In this case, it appears that our government did neither of these things or else reacted so slowly that the system could not keep up with events. These are not mutually exclusive options.
Meanwhile, independent analysts using open-source information tracked Taliban gains, actions and the positioning of their forces over the summer. And starting from the beginning of the drawdown on May 1st, is when districts across Afghanistan started falling. They monitored Taliban forces surround and cutting off cities from government-controlled areas. They tracked the collapse of the logistical system caused by these Taliban actions.
By the time August rolled around, the Taliban was already in control of 2/3 of the country, had already cut off a number of provincial capitals, and were contesting all but a handful of the remaining districts. Given that information, it’s really hard to argue that a near-term collapse of the government and the ANA wasn’t likely. Yet the Biden administration did nothing until the Taliban were at Kabul’s doorstep.
This chain of events could not have gone unnoticed by the US government. Yet the administration kept messaging that there was no immediate crisis brewing and that any collapse would happen slowly, months in the future, and that there would be plenty of time to get the visa situation sorted, as well as withdraw US personnel in an orderly manner.
It’s undeniable that the administration’s assumptions were wrong and that they failed to react to changing conditions. The big question is why, and I don’t have an answer. I’m someone who helped make the sausage and knows how it is made and I’m still baffled at how this could happen. It’s like a collective delusion.
Others are more self-assured, especially the very partisan and politically motivated who fill this knowledge gap with theories and narratives that – coincidentally! – happen to perfectly align with their partisan affiliation, and do so with unwarranted confidence. And so we have this gamut of know-nothings that goes from one end to the other. On the left are those who are certain that the military establishment screwed Biden and/or insist that any counterfactual circumstance would have been the same result or worse. At the other end, you have calls that Biden is the worst President ever, that this is the greatest foreign policy disaster ever, that the administration was lying all along, etc. etc. You even have some particularly stupid Trump supporters claiming Trump would never have left, thereby preventing this disaster.
And if Trump was President right now instead of Biden, with the same facts and circumstances, I think all of you know that the narratives would switch sides.
For me this is all too depressing while there are still forces in the breach – 13 (as I write this) have already died. For our unserious nation, filled with unserious people, the important priority above all else is to make sure the partisan and ideological battle is won, the facts, and history, be damned.
‘And if Trump was President right now instead of Biden, with the same facts and circumstances, I think all of you know that the narratives would switch sides.’
I completely disagree. Facts are facts. Results are results. The results are indefensible. No matter who. Only a weak mind could defend this result.
“Again, President Obama was able to do it with Iraq”
I cant believe you would compare Iraq and Afghanistan. Seriously.
“I spent seven months in the sand of Saudi and ten days in Kuwait. I was in Somalia, and I wound up in a whorehouse in Dubai. I have been to other shitholes in Asia.”
Then you didnt pay attention. How many govt officials in all of those places would you expect to hang around and risk their lives rather than take the money and run if they were losing a civil war and the other side was moving in to take over? The local military seem especially brave and willing to fight? Were they going to protect you at the risk of their own lives? DOnt think so.
Steve
Thank you, Andy for those excellent comments.
For someone like myself who is moderately well informed but has no military or foreign policy cred whatsoever, I’ve had an incredible sense of gaslighting surrounding all of this. I honestly hadn’t been paying enough attention to the drawdown until these recent weeks but my immediate thoughts went to questioning why the base had been closed down before civilians were evacuated. Again, since I have no background in these matters I thought maybe that was a dumb question but it still nagged at me, and as it started to become clear that the civilian airport couldn’t be defended I felt more certain that this was a key point where the planning went wrong.
I heard officials repeatedly state that keeping the base open would not have mattered but I haven’t heard any reporter press them to elaborate on this. *
Yesterday I read that the military commanders were in consensus with Biden on this plan, but digging deeper also learned that the generals agreed under the prerequisite that Biden had already set for keeping no more than 600-700 troops in country. In other words, it wasn’t that they necessarily agreed that shutting the base first was the right approach but that they had no choice but to plan around that.
Andy is right that we shouldn’t be self assured and reflexive in placing blame that aligns with our partisan views. I don’t think I’m doing that, though, when I point out that if what I stated above is factual then Biden is probably the most feckless imbecile that has held the office of POTUS to date, and worse he is too arrogant to realize that he’s ignorant.
* to further this point about the piss poor planning…..listening to our local radio station yesterday a caller had experience in planning security in Kabul a few years back and stated that his team had recommended closing the Abbey Gate because it opened to the urban area and could not be defended. Looking at maps, it is pretty obvious why this would be so, and that the gates on the other side which was the military portion of the airport would be far easier to defend. At the very least- having already committed the cardinal error of ceding Bagram and then seeing the crisis taking shape as the Taliban marched on Kabul- how on earth did no one think of shutting down the gate that posed such a risk? So my anger doesn’t stop with Biden but extends to everyone who failed to foresee obvious risks.
“Again, President Obama was able to do it with Iraqâ€
I cant believe you would compare Iraq and Afghanistan. Seriously.
I agree this is apples to oranges. Would still like to see a comparison of the planning process though.
“It’s undeniable that the administration’s assumptions were wrong and that they failed to react to changing conditionsâ€
I think this was one of the Biden Administrations biggest errors.
CStanely,
I read about the 600-700 number too. I don’t know where that number comes from but it seems about right for an embassy and part of the Kabul airport if one assumes the Afghan government were in charge and providing host-government security.
And if the Afghan government had held, that would be reasonable.
So that and everything else goes back to two bad assumptions:
– That the Afghan government and ANA would hold at least Kabul for several months at least.
– That the inevitable Taliban takeover would happen slowly.
All the decisions hinged on those two assumptions and those assumptions rested on the ANA as a coherent military force in service of the Afghan government and people.
I never had much confidence in the ANA. There have been a couple of iterations over the years where the force was essentially rebuilt a couple of times and when I stopped paying much detailed attention it seemed like they were finally becoming a somewhat capable force, at least in terms of basic fighting ability. And they did fight and lost huge numbers. But it’s clear now, especially after reading this at the NYT…
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/opinion/afghanistan-taliban-army.html
…that the ANA was an Afghan national army in name only.
Particularly this part:
I made this comment over at OTB which touched on the Clausewitzian Trinity of army-people-government:
https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/biden-blamed-for-afghan-fiasco/#comment-2636193
The short version is that an army is a political creation and political tool that serves a political purpose (the use of organized violence to achieve political ends) for a political community and the government that represents that community. A military’s will to fight is dependent on that political community and government.
All along we’ve assumed the Afghan army served, very imperfectly, the political community of Afghans and the Afghan government. What we now realize, which the Afghan general in the NYT op-ed confirms without realizing it, is that the ANA served the US and not Afghanistan. The ANA was, in reality, the functional equivalent of an American colonial army – a modern version of the Sepoys who cosplayed as a national Afghan army. When we abandoned it, its political will vanished and it collapsed immediately because it was our army and not Afghanistan’s.
Drew,
“I completely disagree. Facts are facts. Results are results. The results are indefensible. No matter who. Only a weak mind could defend this result.”
That would be nice if it were true, but I think it’s far more likely that elites and most in the tank for one side or the other would have very different narratives if Trump were President right now.
Also, I have a comment in moderation, probably due to links.
So at the end of the day, I’m coming around to the idea that this was a systemic failure, only the latest of many. In a lot of ways, it reminds me of the ignorant hubris following the invasion of Iraq which was also entirely based on a bunch of questionable assumptions being true. 20 years of war and the rot and hubris and self-deception are still there.
I have always thought that the notion that the U. S. could train an Afghan army was a fantasy, bordering on delusional as was the notion that Afghanistan could support a U. S.-style military.
Remembering that I opposed “setting boots” on Afghanistan at all, the only strategy that might have worked for the U. S. there was what has been characterized as a “small, lethal force” with a mission of counter-terrorism and a stated intention of remaining there forever. No president ever held such a policy, I believe because they recognized it was politically untenable.
Also keep in mind that Germany, Japan, and South Korea are not models for such a mission for two reasons. First, they were nations which Afghanistan is not. Afghanistan is a collection of city-states inhabited by tribes with people who believe that national governments are inherently illegitimate. Second, in Germany. Japan, and South Korea the U. S. casualty rate is incredibly low. They have not been taking fire and casualties for 80 years. The countries have been pacified. That would not be the case in Afghanistan.