I think that the reason the Germans just closed the border is that somebody sat down with a pencil and an envelope and started writing down numbers. They estimate that they spend 12,500 euro per “refugee”. In round numbers then a million “refugees” will cost the German government $15 billion. That’s about ten times what they spent in 2013.
And then there’s the moral hazard. In 2013 they had 100,000 “refugees”. Let’s say they’ll have a million in 2015. Will they have ten million next year?
From the link: “We will profit from this, too,” Nahles emphasized, “because we need immigration,” she added, stressing Germany’s lack of skilled workers.
Again, raising the question, exactly who is coming?
One other thing Europeans might consider: Syria and Iraq are last and second-to-last, respectfully, in terms of female workforce participation. The women coming are unlikely to enter the labor-force or at the very least, likely to be unskilled. Most likely, they will be dependents.
I was a bit surprised by this figure; I would have assumed that Baathist ideology would serve as a counterweight to traditional gender roles. In Syria, in particular, the female participation rate went from 23% (1996) to 14% (2013).
Someone needs to calculate how much Germans waste on the public education of a German child from age 0 to age 19 and even beyond, since university education is also paid for by the taxpayer.
All adult refugees come already potty-trained and some with university degrees who are also multilingual. There is no excuse for Germans to keep breeding as long as there are refugees ready, willing and able to work.
Same applies to the USA, of course, except for the free undergraduate education.
No need for more workers, according to articles like this:
Robots are going to steal the jobs of chefs, salespeople and models, researchers say as they unveil full list of likely robot professions
The only reasons to import more people from the Third World are to ruin the people already in a country, to promote a more stratified society, and for sexual fetishes like Jeb!’s and my friend that has the thing for Thai chicks.
I found these European Asylum Statistics for 2014 (pdf) useful.
These are based upon the first decision, so they don’t analyze appeals, which appear to improve the petitioner’s overall success rate by an average of six percentage points.
55% of applications were rejected.
25% were granted refugee status (under U.N. law).
16% were given subsidiary protection (under EU law)
5% were given asylum for other humanitarian reasons (under national law)
Of the top six EU countries,
Rejections: France is most likely (78%); Sweden least (23%)
Refugee status: UK is most likely (35%); Italy least (10%)
Subsidiary protection: Sweden is most likely (48%); UK least (0%)
Humanitarian: Italy is most likely (26%); France & Belgium least (0%)
(France & Belgium do not have national humanitarian laws, and UK believes its commitment to “subsidiary protection” is baked-into national humanitarian laws. If I combine, subsidiary and humanitarian categories: Italy is most likely (48%) and France & UK are least likely (4%).)
Of the top six country of origin:
Rejections: Serbs most likely (98%); Syrians least (5%)
Refugees: Eritreans most likely (61%); Serbs least (1%)
Subsidiary protection: Syrians most likely (43%); Serbs least (0%)
Humanitarian: Afghans most likely (11%); Serbs & Syrians least (1%)
Also:
Women were approximately 30% of applicants;
Minors (under 18 yrs old) were 25.5% of applicants.
Syrians are primarily going to Germany (33%); Sweden (25%); Netherlands (8%); Austria (6%); and Denmark (6%).
All these refugees should be an economic boon to these countries. According to the economic theory, they will increase the aggregate demand, and if the host countries use deficit spending, those countries should experience explosive growth (not the terrorist kind). With the increased aggregate demand and government welfare, business will invest in everything providing the needed jobs.
Reality, ain’t it a bitch.
TB, Steve Sailer looked at Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) scores for Syria.
This is going to work out very well for Germany, especially when all the jobs these guys are supposed to take get taken by Robbie the Robot instead. It’s going to be fun being young, blonde, pretty and female in Germany!
@Icepick
Off-topic (mostly):
Here is my latest crazy prediction. The NSA et al. cannot find the terrorists because they use encryption or because they do not use electronic communication, and this is preventing the government from protecting the public.
The only solution is to eliminate the good guys, and those who are left will be the bad guys. This means that the NSA et al. will need to examine every electronic communication to determine who is not communicating with terrorists. If this does not work, they may need to monitor all non-electronic communication also.
Ellipses: German unemployment rate:
4.8% plus
3.8% under-employed part-time workers, plus
1.0% seeking work, but not currently available, plus
1.2% available to work, but currently not seeking work.
Link