Unlearning the Lessons

Here’s the peroration of Brandon J. Weichert’s piece at Asia Times decrying the degree to which we have unlearned the lessons of Pearl Harbor:

The solution is not to court war; it is to delay it. The only thing the US can do is to rebuild itself over the next decade. It must make itself economically more dynamic and attractive to the rest of the world than it has ever been. It must stop getting mired in regional micturating contests with tinpot dictators or funding antiquated defense systems that only enrich the contractors that ring Washington, DC.

Instead, Washington must build actual space-based defenses and it must invest in its own hypersonic capabilities – all the meanwhile reaching out to both Moscow and Beijing potentially to create a new world order that is amenable to all sides (without sacrificing America’s moral position).

There is a pathway forward for ensuring America’s long-term dominance on the world stage. But that must be left primarily to the innovators and diplomats.

Pearl Harbor was the result of years of failed American and Japanese policies toward each other. Another surprise attack, followed on by a new world war, would come from similar failures – and given America’s current weakness, it is not guaranteed that the United States will win.

Another world war is an entirely avoidable event.

Ignoring the internal contributions in that statement, let me present my view on what we need to do.

First, we need to recognize that U. S. power and influence have never been due to our holding the moral high ground (we never have) or that other countries envy our system and its freedoms (they never have). They have resulted from the power and depth of the U. S. economy. We need to re-industrialize the United States. Even if environmentalists don’t like it. Even if doing that is against the interests of some of the most powerful companies and the richest people in the U. S. Even if it means that we must consume less.

Second, Japan did not attack the U. S. Navy 80 years ago because it was weak but because it was strong and posed a threat to Japan’s ambitions in the Pacific. I don’t think we need a military build-up. I’m arguing for right-sizing the U. S. military and aligning its capabilities with our actual interests.

Third, 80 years ago we were not going out of our way to aggravate either Germany or Japan. Today we are going out of our way to aggravate Russia. Why?

Fourth, we need to understand our own interests more clearly. Over the period of the last half century we have repeatedly confused U. S. interests with the interests of our notional friends and with those of powerful companies and rich people in the U. S. Is a Greater Israel in our interest? Is a European continent dominated by a united Germany in our interest? Is expanding NATO by admitting countries that do not provide a positive contribution to the collective security of the alliance in our interest? Are the interests of companies that are openly at odds with the emergent U. S. grand strategy in our interest? Example: the Great Firewall of China.

Finally, we need to recognize that other countries are in fact other countries complete with preferences and interests of their own. I don’t believe that Russia pursuing the interests it has pursued for 300 years interferes in any way with U. S. interests. The Chinese authorities on the other hand see both trade and foreign affairs as a zero-sum game, i.e. the only way for China to achieve its goals is at the expense of the U. S. failing to achieve its goals.