2035 is a long time away. Who knows what will have happened by then? But bear with me on this. Imagine that California’s executive order banning the sale of new vehicles with internal combustion engines were to become effective immediately and were to withstand the inevitable challenges in the courts. Which of the following would happen and to what degree?
- Californians would buy a lot more electric vehicles.
- The price of used cars would rise sharply due to increased consumer demand.
- The price of used cars would rise sharply due to increased speculation.
- It might actually become more worthwhile to leave stolen cars intact rather than breaking them up for parts.
- A lot of car dealers would set up shop in adjoining states just across the California state line.
I think the likelihood from most likely to least likely would be B, C, E, A, D. What do you think?
I would vote for “F†– In 2030, California punts the requirement 10+ years.
B is the easy one.
But I’d change the title to foreseeable effects. Look at drugs. Mucho profito. Or marijuwanna legal states and the traffic they attract. Cigarette or gas sales driven to adjacent lower tax states. How have gun laws curtailed guns? Behavior is modified, but not changed.
I’ll stop now.
C, B, E, A, D. Most people dont think that far ahead. F is the real answer. This i kind of the left wing equivalent of “build a wall and Mexico will pay for it”. If it does happen then there will be a lot of car repair shops to invest in.
Steve
It is the job of policymakers to think that far ahead. Without the need to think ahead, what is the need for policymakers? All you’d need is opinion polls.
Yes, that’s a run-on effect. Also note that modern technology vehicles are a lot harder to work on than the old generation of vehicles was. You need special equipment—that limits the entry and the competition.
Electric vehicles would reduce the value of the auto repair shop to that of the refrigerator or television repair shop, at least once no ICE vehicles are left or allowed.
Not to co-opt your post Dave, I understand that converting the national transportation fleet to battery operated is inevitable, unstoppable.
I really don’t know why.
Are they cheaper to produce? Do they provide revenue streams for the manufacturer I’m unaware of?
“It is the job of policymakers to think that far ahead. ”
Was really oriented towards B vs C. Speculators will plan further ahead. Would expect sales of gas powered cars to be huge in 2034 if we are wrong and F is not the correct answer.
Steve
Actually there are several things that might stop it. One is if the battery manufacturers are unable to build batteries any faster than they already are and more makers wouldn’t help either for supply chain reasons. I’ve posted on that before and I fully expect that to materialize.