Unforeseen Effects

As I read this post of Mickey Kaus’s some questions occurred to me. What effect would an increase in the minimum wage have on illegal immigration into the United States? For that matter what effect would comprehensive immigration reform have on illegal immigration?

In my view, unless comprehensive immigration reform includes robust workplace enforcement, immigration reform could actually incentivize illegal immigration. The logic is along these lines. Illegal workers are attractive to employers because they’re illegal. They can be paid below minimum wage, you don’t have to conform with labor laws, you don’t have to worry about health and safety regulations, and they require less paperwork. They cost less and they won’t squeal because they don’t want to be turned int. Legalizing the immigration status of people already here doesn’t change that. Employers who are predisposed to hire illegals won’t suddenly become predisposed to hire the newly legalized. They’ll either want to continue to employ those newly legalized workers off the books or hire new illegals, also off the books.

Additionally, any measures that increase the costs of employment will, at least at the margins, increase the attraction of off-the-books workers. Those measures include a higher minimum wage, mandatory healthcare insurance for employees, health and safety requirements and so on.

I’m concerned that we’re careening willy-nilly towards fewer full-time jobs, more part-time and temp jobs, and more off-the-books workers. With the best of intentions, of course.

Thoughts?

3 comments… add one
  • Comrade Icepick Link

    I’m concerned that we’re careening willy-nilly towards fewer full-time jobs, more part-time and temp jobs, and more off-the-books workers.

    Careening towards? We’re already there. I saw a graphic the other day that showed we’re two million jobs short of where we were when the Recession started. But we’re UP two million part-time jobs in that time frame. From which it follows that we’re four million full-time jobs short of where we were when the Recession started. Temp and contract work is also up.

    The figures didn’t surprise me because I had broken them out myself two months ago. This is the economy that Obama and his sycophantic followers crow about.

    With the best of intentions, of course.

    Why assume good intentions? The ruling class is completely cognizant of what they’ve done and what they’re doing and the effect it is having on the nation. This is their design.

  • TastyBits Link

    If an illegal worker turns in his employer, the worker and his immediate family will be granted citizenship upon a successful conviction of the employer. The illegal worker must identify the family members before any action will be taken. If the charges are bogus, everybody will be deported immediately.

    There will probably need a few more safeguards, but it would get the incentives aligned with the goal.

  • Andy Link

    Employers who are predisposed to hire illegals won’t suddenly become predisposed to hire the newly legalized. They’ll either want to continue to employ those newly legalized workers off the books or hire new illegals, also off the books.

    If true, that could incentivize workers to stay illegal. It could also increase the use of subcontracting, which legally separates the employer from the employee. That’s already happening in construction.

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