Ukrainian Victory in 2025?

Eric Hill gives us his formula for Ukrainian victory in 2025 at The Hill:

When it comes to military aid, the top priority must be to provide Ukraine with more air defense missiles and artillery shells. Russian assault groups have rushed toward the frontline with infantry-laden vehicles in an effort to break through Ukraine’s defenses. Ukraine needs responsive and heavy artillery fire to defend against this onslaught. Providing Ukraine with around $2.5 billion for artillery shells would enable it to sustain its defenses; $7 billion would allow its armed forces to stage substantial counter-offensives.

Additionally, long-range weapons will counter Russia’s firepower advantage by allowing Ukraine to target artillery pieces and ammunition depots behind the frontlines. Ukraine has done this successfully before. In 2022 and again in 2023 Ukraine used a handful of Western-supplied HIMARs to strike Russian depots, supply lines and command centers.

To win, Ukraine will also need large quantities of tanks and mechanized vehicles. If Ukraine is to win the war, it will not be in a single offensive, but rather through a series of smaller offensives, each of which build on the others.

Without belaboring the point too much what he’s proposing exceeds our capacity. We don’t produce that many munitions. There is no real prospect for our producing that many. Do we actually have the ships to deliver that many?

I also have an uncomfortable question. Do the Ukrainians have enough artillery crews at this point to fire that many? You can’t just call for more from Artillery Crews-R-Us. And you can’t draft a green kid and put him to work immediately firing artillery pieces.

Additionally, he’s assuming that the Russians wouldn’t respond to such an increase.