Two Days of Ceasefire

The ceasefire in Syria has entered its second day and appears to be holding as well as might be expected. The Guardian reports:

Syria’s fragile ceasefire has entered its second day with reports of scattered airstrikes and bombings, but overall the slowdown in fighting – regarded as the most successful effort yet to reduce the bloodshed in the five-year civil war – appeared to be holding.

Warplanes, believed to be either Syrian or Russian, bombed seven villages in the provinces of Aleppo and Hama, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Several airstrikes hit central and northern Syria on Sunday, a monitor said.

The Russian coordinating unit in Syria said there had been nine breaches of the ceasefire, although the partial cessation of hostilities appeared to be broadly intact. Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the Britain-based monitor, said one person had been killed in Aleppo province.

The Russian Defence Ministry is providing daily briefings on the operations in Syria. Here’s an excerpt from their most recent briefing:

In the course of 24 hours, 9 events of violation were registered.

On the 27th of February from 6.25 till 11.30 a.m. 6 mortar and MLRS attacks on inhabited areas in city Damascus (Karadzh, Abasin, Asiya, Dzhaubar, Mamunia, Maisilun) were registered.

In total, there were 20 explosions of artillery munitions, 2 civilians were killed and 8 – wounded.

The fire was delivered from the areas of Dzhaubar and Eastern Guta, which are occupied by groups of the «moderate» opposition, which included in the American list of of those who joined the ceasefire regime. Upon the request of Russian Center, the Syrian government forces did not shoot back.

The group of militants (up to 100 men strong) crossed the frontier of Syria from the Turkey in the Raqqah province. Then the group was reinforced (the number of people reached up to 250) and ceased the northern part of Et-Tell-al-Abiyada (82 km to the north from the city of Raqqah). The actions of militants were supported by the shellfire from the Turkish side. Kurdish rebel groups knocked militants out from the town and blocked them in Munbatih.

Militants of the international terrorist organization Jabhat al-Nusra engaged the Desert Falcons militia detachment with a mortar fire near the village Kbana (Aleppo province) from the territory controlled by the «moderate» opposition. The mortar-fire killed and wounded many members of the militia and civilians.

On the highway, 1 km to the east from Homs, a suicide bomber set off a car bomb moving from the area controlled by the «moderate» opposition.

The American reconciliation group in the city of Amman (Kingdom Jordan) has been informed about all facts of ceasefire violation.

In general, the ceasefire regime is being observed in Syria, however some violations by «moderate» opposition and by international terrorist organizations are being registered.

As you can see from the map above, the implication of the ceasefire is that western Syria is largely secured so the Syrian government need not watch its back any longer and Syria’s northern border is somewhat secured other than a chokepoint still controlled by DAESH and however porous the Kurdish areas are.

That provides the Syrian government, the Russians, the Iranians, Hezbollah, et al. the opportunity to focus their attention on the worst of the worst: DEASH and the Al Nusra Front.

Expect an encircling movement to close the border with Turkey and prevent resupply from there. We should also expect continued expressions of despair from those who’d rather see a Syria controlled by violent, radical Islamists than by the Syrian government. Unfortunately, that includes the United States and its alleged allies, Turkey, Israel, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.