Presidents who have been re-elected to a second term outnumber those who have not by about 2:1. In Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Kyle Kondik has this to stay about the present state of the 2020 presidential election:
That makes the overall Electoral College ratings exactly split, 248 apiece, with 42 electoral votes’ worth of Toss-ups: Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, plus Nebraska’s Second Congressional District.
This also puts all of Clinton’s 2016 electoral votes in at least the Leaning Democratic column. But that doesn’t mean the president shouldn’t target some of these states anyway — and he certainly will.
I expect Trump to campaign heavily in all of the toss-ups (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) and “leaning” states regardless of which way they’re leaning (Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas) and even some of the states that are supposedly locks for his opponent whomever that may be if only to force that opponent to defend his or her backside.
Will the general election be close? I have no idea. If forced to predict, I will go along with Ray Fair and say that if a new shooting war isn’t started and the economy is no worse than it is now a month before the election, President Trump is likely to be re-elected.
And thank God. The Dims candidates are a horror show.
I doubt that if things stay as they are; Trump will win.
The last 3 Presidents have won re-election; historically it’s very rare. It feels like it’s time that a President loses a bid for re-election.
Maybe I am falling for the “gambler’s fallacyâ€