The United States is presently actively involved in three wars: Gaza, Iran, and Ukraine. Our role varies considerably among them. In Gaza and Ukraine we provide material support to one side without being directly engaged in combat. In our war against Iran we are the aggressor, although the intensity of the fighting is considerably lower than it was earlier this year. In all three conflicts we are attempting to act as mediators while remaining involved in the fighting to varying degrees.
The war in Gaza is under a shaky ceasefire. There are still episodic outbursts of violence on both sides, although the casualties have been overwhelmingly Palestinian. The ceasefire has reduced the level of violence without resolving the underlying issues. There is little reason to believe that a durable peace is at hand.
At this point our war against Iran is neither war nor peace. Large-scale hostilities have subsided but there has been no lasting settlement. The possibility of renewed fighting remains, as does the question of what we hope to accomplish.
Despite its not making the front pages here in the United States, the war in Ukraine is still fully active. U. S.-mediated trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine opened today in Abu Dhabi, the first such talks since February. The front is largely static but that should not be mistaken for a reduction in the intensity of the war. Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure while Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries and military production facilities deep within Russian territory. Both sides appear to be pursuing a war of attrition.
The United States still appears unable to furnish Ukraine with air-defense missiles, particularly Patriot interceptors, as fast as Ukraine needs them. That is not merely a question of our willingness to supply them. It is also a question of our ability to manufacture them. The demands of our other military commitments only complicate matters.
There is a common thread running through all three conflicts. The United States is attempting to negotiate settlements to wars in which it is itself involved. Meanwhile, the three wars compete for our attention, resources, and industrial capacity. I think that raises a question worth considering: how effectively can we act as a mediator in a war in which we have already taken sides?
