We presently face multiple threats. Consider:
From Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on September 30:
We will defend our land with all the forces and resources we have, and we will do everything we can to ensure the safety of our people.
and from President Joe Biden’s remarks on October 7:
“First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use (of a) nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going,†Biden warned during remarks at a Democratic fundraiser in New York where he was introduced by James Murdoch, the youngest son of media mogul Rupert Murdoch, according to the pool report.
He added: “I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.â€
What presently presents the greatest threat of nuclear war?
- Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine
- Kim Jong Un attacking South Korea
- Iran attacking Israel
- A preemptive strike by Israel against Iran
- China attacking Taiwan
- India attacking Pakistan or vice versa (update)
My own view is that there is presently a substantial threat of Russia, the U. S., or both backing themselves into a nuclear conflict.
“My own view is that there is presently a substantial threat of Russia, the U. S., or both backing themselves into a nuclear conflict.”
That’s my worry as well.
Putin has merely reiterated long-standing policies going back the the USSR, namely that Russia will use nuclear weapons only if (1) it is attacked with nuclear weapons, or (2) there is a conventional attack that threatens to break up the Russian Federation. The claim that Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is false; it is a fabrication of Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor. No Russian leader has threatened to use nukes in Ukraine.
Items B, C, and E are very unlikely to occur at all, and if they did there is no reason they should go nuclear. D has a higher, but still low, probability, but even it would not lead to nuclear war, unless the Israel’s used nukes in their attack.
As to the US and Russia stumbling into a nuclear exchange, it should be noted that in the war games against the old USSR, the Soviets were winning the conventional war, and the US initiated the use of tactical nuclear weapons, every time.
My expectation is that if nuclear weapons are used, most likely tactical, it will be the US or Israel the uses them first.
That said, the Biden administration is saturated with war hawks like Blinken, Sullivan, and Nuland, and they are working towards wars with both Russia and China. Biden, himself, is a war hawk, but I don’t believe he has any influence over American policy. He is just a senile pedophile.
I can see how Russia might be backing itself into a corner. They invaded Ukraine when it was not justified and their military has far underperformed expectations. Putin might think he needs to use nukes first to try to avoid losing. That said, I dont see what would lead the US to be backed into a corner where we think we need to use nukes first. If Russia did something like nuke Kyiv and a couple of other large Ukraine cities then I am not sure what we would do. I really dont see a nuclear response to use of a tactical nuke.
Also, you left off India and Pakistan.
Steve
Biden’s language, “cannot imagine an outcome “, suggests intentional or not, that he is captive to the process.
The rules based order, the UN, NATO, and that he will stand aside to let the process play out.
Wondering how Putin might find an off-ramp, he’s put the ball in Putin’s court, apparently to me, having made the judgment Putin will choose caution.
And I believe Putin will, unless and until events make him feel desperate.
You’re right about India and Pakistan. I’ll add them.
My own view is that should Russia, say, level Kiev using conventional weaponry (something well within their ability) that we might respond with nuclear weapons.
“put the ball in Putin’s court”
Real men like to impress their balls with radiation. It boosts testosterone.
Putin should launch strategic nukes at Kyiv and Poland. Biden is too weak to react, so Russia and Republicans win!
I disagree but you are certainly entitled to your view. I dont think we care enough about Ukraine to launch nukes because Russia had conventional success and destroyed Kyiv with conventional weapons.
Steve
My worry, specifically, is that the US will either ignore or not understand Russia’s red lines – a problem we’ve had for the past 25 years.
The current talk in the media and among the pundit class isn’t discussing that and instead is focusing on largely fictional scenarios.
My sense is that Russian red lines regarding nukes are probably pre-2014 Russian territory plus Crimea, but the annexation suggests that Russia may consider parts of the post-2014 Donbas and related areas red lines as well.
What is the evidence we are ignoring those red lines? If anything, we have carefully avoided them. We have much longer range HIMARS available. If we supplied those to Ukraine they could hit bridges, rail lines and depots in Russia even further disrupting logistics. We have not provided those out of concerns they might be used on Russia soil. Same thing with he planes that could have come from Poland.
Steve
steve,
As noted, I think losing Crimea is a red line where Russia would seriously threaten to use nukes. How serious, then, is our demand that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine? Time will tell.