Things to come

James Joyner of Outside the Beltway notes that, according to Census Bureau projections, the population of the United States will go over 300 million some time in 2006. He includes an interesting table of the changes in the population from census to census since 1790 with a breakdown by rural and urban residency. He also observes that much of the increase in recent years is attributable to Hispanic immigration into the country.

In 1790 the country’s population was under 4 million and overwhelmingly rural. By 2000 the population was over 280 million and more than 80% urban (urban, presumably defined as non-rural). Much of the change in living circumstances has come as a result of people leaving rural areas for job and lifestyle reasons.

In 1790 each Congressman represented roughly 40,000 constituents—roughly the size of a Chicago ward (Washington thought that was far too many). I can see how, with the improvements in transportation and communications of today, a Congressional representative could effectively represent two to three times as many constituents as the Congressional representative of 200 years ago. Today each Congressman represents more than 600,000 constituents.

In the 1900 federal census 90% of all adult males listed their occupation as farmer; as of the 2000 census something like 15% of the population were either farmers or worked in farm-related businesses. That change is having and will continue to have serious political implications
That’s an enormous change in the fundamental economic and living circumstances of the country over 200 years. Will the changes over the next 200 years be as dramatic?

Despite (or perhaps because of) the fact that the paradigmatic occupation of 100 years ago was farming, none of my own ancestors that I know of were farmers. Just for fun here’s how the ancestors I know of made their livings.

My father, Fred Schuler, was an attorney. His father, also named Fred Schuler, was a saloon keeper. My father’s paternal grandfather, Joseph Schuler, was a justice of the peace. My father’s maternal grandfather, Louis Wagner, was a chiropractor.

My dad’s paternal grandfather’s father, David Schuler, was a milk broker. Louis Wagner’s father, Charles Wagner, was a cooper.

My mother was a remedial reading teacher. Her dad, Owen Blanchard, was a vaudeville performer. Her dad’s father, George Blanchard, was an engineer. Her mother’s father, August Schneider, was a meatcutter.

George Blanchard’s father, also named George Blanchard, was also an engineer. August Schneider’s father, William Schneider, was a cigarmaker. My maternal grandmother’s maternal grandfather, Edward Flanagan, was a cowboy, postal express delivery rider, and, eventually, a cattle grader.

Quite a variety, eh?