Speaking of predictions, in his Wall Street Journal column William Galston makes some predictions about the 2020 presidential election:
- Turnout will be very high. I suspect he’s wrong about that. How high is high? In each of the last four presidential elections turnout has been between 54% and 58%. I think it is very unlikely that voter turnout will exceed 2008’s (58.2%). I think it’s more likely to be what it was in 2004 and 2012—right around 55%. I wouldn’t call such a turnout high. Voter turnout was around 80% in nearly every presidential election between 1840 and 1900. The sad reality is that the higher the registration, the lower the percentage turnout.
- Despite the rise of cultural issues, the economy will matter. I agree with that.
- President Trump is likely to receive significantly less than 50% of the popular vote, and a smaller share than his Democratic opponent. I have no idea whether that’s right or wrong. Hillary Clinton received 65,853,514 and Donald Trump received 62,984,828 votes in 2016. That’s a difference of 2.1% of the popular vote. That’s within the margin of error. IMO the people who are making such predictions have been reading their own press releases too long. They could be right but they could be wrong, too.
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.â€-Yogi Berra
The earliest attributions of that quote claim it is Danish in origin, sometimes Niels Bohr, Piet Hein, or others.
Maybe, but Yogi was first to say that with his tongue in his cheek.