Just a reminder. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official scorekeeper on recessions, the present recovery has been in progress for more than 36 months. During the post-war period the average period from the trough of a recession to the peak of the next cycle has been 59 months.
That means that there is a very great likelihood that the economy will go into recession again during the next presidential term regardless of who is elected president. Given the economic woes in Europe, in China, the volatile situation in the Middle East, and the fragility of the present recovery, I strongly suspect that recession will be at least as severe as the last.
Have a nice day.
What happens if you have a recession and nobody notices?
I do not care about the numbers. I am worried that if I lose my job I will become long term unemployed (LTUE). I think a lot of people share this concern. I suspect retirees and rich (not ultra-rich) people have a similar worries.
Despite the numbers the economy does not seem to be improving to me, and a recession would need to be sharp and deep for me to notice.
In my opinion, the numbers are being “juiced” through all the money being pumped into the economy, and I doubt that the normal cycles are at work.
“In my opinion, the numbers are being “juiced†through all the money being pumped into the economy, and I doubt that the normal cycles are at work.”
I think this is undoubtedly correct. Employment being exhibit A. Further, we have the Fed pumping so much money that banks win…..and savers lose. The Dems had an anti-Republican ad with grandma being dumped over a cliff. How’s grandmas retirement savings yield doing? Dog food for supper, or drugs vs eating, anyone?
This is a travesty. The media? Silence”…………..
… grandma being dumped over a cliff. …
The Republicans should have put out an ad with grandma’s grandchildren being thrown off the cliff.
I think that put in the context of bankrupting their children and grandchildren, most retirees would be open to changes in SS and Medicare.
I predict that after January 1, 2013 the economy will pick up. The president and congressional political party makeup should have been decided, and the tax issue should have been decided. Businesses will know what the next 2-4 years will be like, and they will invest accordingly. It may not be gangbusters, but it will be forward movement.
One side will proclaim vindication for their policies, and the other will forecast eventual destruction of the country as we know it. Neither will be true, but it will not matter. Things will improve over time.
People who have come to the “mad as hell” party will drift away. For those who have come to the party within the last 5 years, do not worry. All will be right, and you will be gone within the next 5 years.
I think your scenario is extremely unlikely.
The economy may improve a bit in the near term but another economic downturn is inevitable. The economy does turn down. The business cycle does exist. We’re already nearing the sell-by date. Not having an economic downturn during the next four years would be quite remarkable.
I do not care about the numbers. I am worried that if I lose my job I will become long term unemployed (LTUE).
Should you lose your job, go get another one immediately. The kind of job doesn’t matter, just get one, any kind. Get a crap job that let’s you keep looking, but don’t let it appear that you’re unemployable. If you let that happen you are fucked.
You could start a “consulting” business on the side. But only do that kind of stunt if you know you will have customers that will let you mention that you have them. Lots of people are setting up “consulting” companies, complete with websites, business cards and other paraphernalia, but have no customers. I am not seeing that it is working for filling employment gaps on resumes, but perhaps I’m wrong about that.
The main thing is, get a job. If you’ve got a friend that mows lawns for a living see if he’s got a spot on his crews on a shift one day a week. But for the love of God, don’t wait.
TB, I also have to disagree with your scenario. If the Dems are repudiated at the ballot box they will have NO REASON to do anything but put up road-blocks to resolving the fiscal cliff and taxmageddon scenarios. If Obama wins and the Dems hold the Senate, why would we expect anything other than what we’ve had? The may resolve the issues I mentioned in time to avert disaster, but they won’t fix all the other problems – everything will still be uncertain, so Drew will continue to go be an asshole at the golf course or fuck around with his stereo system instead of creating jobs. And if the Dems win everything? Well, I hear tell they’re going to outlaw profits, LOL, so I don’t think that’s going to help!
@Icepick
I am not commenting about what the outcome will be. Any outcome will allow businesses and individuals to move forward.
If I have a foot that may need to be amputated, my marathon plans will be uncertain until a decision has been made. At that point, I can plan to hand out water, or I can try to get the ting-ting running foot/leg (spring things).
A lot of hiring and layoff decisions can be made once businesses know what is the overhead for each employee. This is just one example.
I am not commenting about what the outcome will be. Any outcome will allow businesses and individuals to move forward.
I understand you’re not picking an outcome, I think you are just misinterpreting what those outcomes will mean. And given that the regulations from ObamaCare will keep getting spun-out non-stop, I don’t think anything that leaves that in place will resolve anything.
@Icepick
If Obama is reelected, Obamacare stays. There may be an added provision to cover sex change operations, but a business will either need to cover its employees or pay a fine. The fine can be calculated, and the health insurance can be negotiated.
If Romney is elected, Obamacare will go or be minimized. Birth control requirements will be removed. There will be some uncertainty about how much can be dismantled, but business will be optimistic. This optimism will be reflected in the assumptions they use for business decisions.
Regulations will be similar. Obama will continue to close coal plants, and there will be expensive energy. Romney will be the reverse. Google will know where to locate additional server farms, and they will know how to price their products.
There will be some uncertainty, but the general direction will be known. Businesses will begin to plan.
@Dave Schuler
I do not believe we are in a recovery. I think the GDP numbers are reflecting dollars being pumped into the economy, and without those dollars, the GDP would be flat or negative. I think any downturn will drive down numbers that should already be lower.
Europe and China will also be factors if they have problems. Depending upon the timing, this could reverse any US downturn, and possibly propel the US into a growth period until Europe and China get their problems worked out.
I think that this is a likely scenario. If this does occur, the party in power will claim credit for the growth.
Otherwise, we need to plant a depression garden.
No downturn unless deficits are reduced or we inflate another unsustainable debt bubble, which would take years. 2013 will be another muddle through year, though unemployment will continue to be a serious problem and real wages will likely deteriorate further.
I seem to recall this happened in Japan, but I can’t remember the details.