There Is No Instance of a Nation Benefiting From Prolonged Warfare

In his latest Wall Street Journal column William A. Galston expresses concern that China has is no longer biding its time:

Mr. Xi’s strategy rests on five pillars. First, he has moved aggressively to take back authority over every industry in his country. Economic actors that had been increasingly independent—especially in technology and consumer services—have been reined in, and he is pressing the private sector to hand over all of its data. Dissenting voices in civil society have been shut down. Potential threats to his leadership from within the party have been suppressed. The full power of the state has been unleashed against Hong Kong and the Uyghurs. And he has sparked a campaign to deploy Chinese history in service to the Communist Party, an effort that has been labeled “the largest mass-education drive since the Mao era.”

Second, Mr. Xi has established technological superiority as a core national goal. His “Made in China 2025” plan is designed to propel his country into the lead in the technologies that will dominate the global economy in coming decades, many of which have military applications. And he has strengthened the connections between the civilian and military sectors.

Third, Mr. Xi has upgraded his defense forces and extended their reach. The Chinese army is far better equipped than it was a decade ago. The navy is the largest in the world. And China is moving to establish a global system of ports to give its forces access all over the world.

Fourth, Mr. Xi is using China’s economic clout to extend its diplomatic reach. Although the Belt and Road Initiative has yielded mixed results, developing countries and autocratic governments welcome the absence of the environmental and governance requirements that other funders impose. Most recently, while Western countries have concentrated on inoculating their own populations against Covid-19, China has boosted its international standing by shipping millions of doses of its vaccine to countries throughout Asia.

Finally, and most ominously, Mr. Xi has deployed the full force of Chinese nationalism to support the reassertion of his country’s power and to complete its reunification. Last week, 28 Chinese fighter jets and other aircraft conducted exercises over waters south of Taiwan. A successful effort to end Taiwan’s independence by force, once considered improbable, can no longer be ruled out.

I am unconcerned about China but I am gravely concerned about the United States. I wish our leaders realized that U. S. hard and soft power are completely dependent on the U. S. economy. They are downstream from it. With a strong, resilient U. S. economy there is little about which we should be concerned. Without it U. S. influence will continue to erode. We cannot base a strong and resilient economy on consumption and there is no other country from which we might buy one. It is something which we foolishly threw away and which rebuilding will require considerable effort.

Rather than dwell on the quote that I believe Mr. Galston incorrectly attributes to Deng Xiaoping I would emphasize two other quotes, both of which I know to be from Sun Tzu. The first is the title of this post. Here’s the second:

When we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.