Nate Silver’s latest numbers find the Senate increasingly coming within Republicans’ grasp:
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives Republicans a 65.1 percent chance of winning the Senate with the new polling added, similar to the 63.5 percent chance that our previous forecast gave them on Friday.
But the path to a Republican majority is becoming a little clearer — and the problem for Democrats is that it runs through six deeply red states.
while Stuart Rothenberg sees a Republican wave forming:
While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.
But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.
Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.
That gap closes as Election Day approaches, of course, since polling should reflect changes in name identification, candidate and party spending, and voter attitudes as November approaches.
Right now, for example, the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Senate ratings suggest Republican gains in the mid-single digits. My newsletter has the most likely outcome of the midterms at Republican gains of 5 to 8 seats, with the GOP slightly more likely than not to net the six seats it needs to win Senate control.
Things must look very different in the six “battleground states” than they do in Illinois. My vision is clouded on this and I’m still seeing slight Republican gains but no wave.
The problem is that people want change from the current leadership but are gradually realizing that both sides suck, and both sides are against the interests of the many.
The internals of the latest Battleground Poll gave a boost to pollster’s considerations of the GOP taking the Senate. However, there remains an eternity of possibilities that could happen, between now and the election, that could entirely change those trends.
Nonetheless, there has been a monumental disenchantment/resentment of this administration’s policies –augmented by President Obama’s personally detached demeanor and prickly divisive leadership style — that a normal 2nd term “Presidential Fatigue Syndrome” may be pushed into unchartered territories, resulting in incalculable gains and loses in state houses and congressional races all across the country.
We’ll see…..
Jan, the problem the disenfranchisment scenario is that Congressional Republicans are also reviled. Not many people want Boehner & McConnell in charge. They just don’t want Reid, Pelosi or Obama in charge, either.
It’ll be a great election to sit out, and I’m expecting a very low turnout, even by off year standards.
ice,
While I agree with you that there’s not much “there” there, in either party, a great many people are simply as tired of the party currently in power as they were in 2006 when the R’s held the reins of the majority.
So, I think people might get out and vote just so they can turn the policy channel to something else. IOW, I think it will be less about people’s considerations of Boehner/McConnell, who both have low favorables, than it will be to give the other party another chance at political redemption.
This Washington Post piece, exemplifies the pre-election mood of the public right now. And, moods are what move people to vote, IMO.
I don’t think there is much quality polling on the state races for these “poll aggregators” to do much. I think that is my take-away from Rothenberg’s piece. He’s kind of saying his model is not predictive of what to expect by November. A Saint might reject the model, an Engineer might tinker with it until the results reflect his observations, and a Political Pundit will proceed full speed ahead.
Re polling problems: (1) too few to establish trends; (2) too small sample, and therefore too great of margin of error; (3) difficulty in polling with pending primaries or the Louisiana open election; (4) too many based upon registered voters/ no likely voter screen; and (5) states that have been written off, like Kansas, are black holes.