While I’m fumbling to post and expressing my opinions anyway, I thought I’d give four thoughts on the war with Iran.
First, as you should recall, I opposed going to war with Iran from the start. That doesn’t mean I think the Iranian regime are good guys—far from it. I think they’re awful. I simply think that wars should be fought only for just causes, as a last resort, conducted justly, and undertaken by a legitimate authority. That’s a very high standard and this war did not meet it.
Second and especially under the circumstances, we should all be happy for a conclusion to the war.
Third, I think those proclaiming that the Iranian regime won the war are exaggerating. By no reasonable measure did Iran win militarily. One can argue that the regime emerged from the negotiations in a stronger position than it deserved or than one would have preferred but that is not the same thing as winning the war.
Finally, neither did the United States. It may be too early for a definitive judgment but at this point it does not appear that we have achieved the objectives President Trump set out before the war.
Seems a lot like Vietnam and a number of our other wars post-Korea. We won the battles and killed the most people but didnt achieve much in terms of strategic goals, though we need to see the final agreements. So far, it looks like we didnt change the regime, Iran still has most of its ballistic missiles and drones, they still have their proxies and their uranium.
Its reported that all sanctions will be relieved. I had mistakenly thought they were all gone after the JCPOA. Iran also gets the $300 billion reparations/investment fund. What happens with the strait is still unclear.
Agree that its a bit much to say Iran won, but so far seems like we didnt win and when you factor in the costs for the return its pretty poor.
(Some guy at the Atlantic wrote that it’s a win because destroying much of Iran’s army makes us safer. Iran’s army was never going to invade the US and has carefully avoided direct confrontation while we engaged k our ME adventures.)
Steve
The US failed to achieve regime change in Iran. Like Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, that is a defeat by definition.
On the Iranian side, the regime remains intact, the American bases in the region are either destroyed or inoperable, considerable damage has been done to Israel, and Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which did not before the war.
What the US is negotiating now JCPOA II, which a weaker version than the original.
I am scoring that as a victory for Iran.
You need also consider the Houthis. Two different carrier groups, plus a number of detached destroyers, plus elements of the US, UK, and Israeli Air Force’s have failed to suppress the Houthis, who still control access to the Red Sea and the Sea itself, up to Suez and Eilat.
I am scoring that as a US defeat and a Houthi victory.
@Bob Sykes: We certainly achieved regime change in Iraq. Saddam was deposed (and ultimately hanged) and the Baathist regime was replaced by a democratically elected one.
While it wasn’t our doing—we were marginal players in the Syrian civil war—opposition forces certainly achieved regime change there. Assad and his ilk are gone.
But, yes, while we achieved considerable destruction of Iran’s conventional military capability, their seizure of the Strait and our inability to do anything about that is a significant strategic win for them.
The Iranians didn’t “seize” the Gulf. They had it all along by virtue of geography and relative power. Other countries have merely become aware of it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they responded accordingly, e.g. with pipelines. Alternatively, Oman and the UAE (the other countries that border the Strait of Hormuz) could come to some sort of agreement with Iran or elect to fight back against it.
Longer term I think we see more pipelines, but not everything going through the straight can go through a pipeline. I also think that with the prevalence of missiles and drones it’s going to be hard to protect those pipelines so they will also be vulnerable.
While we destroyed a lot of stuff in Iran it’s also pretty clear that we weren’t as effective as we would like in protecting our bases and sites in other Gulf countries. We need a cost effective way to fight against drones and missiles.
Steve
We will never be perfectly effective in defending overseas bases. If our objective is to avoid the risks they pose, don’t have overseas bases.
The era of personal empowerment of which drones are emblematic means that perfect security is beyond reach.