At Vox.com German Lopez thrashes like a fish on a gaff producing reasons that Georgia’s early reopening did not produce the surge in new cases of COVID-19 that some had predicted including:
- It’s too early
Unless the statements about incubation periods are completely wrong after a month that doesn’t seem particularly likely.
- There might be some data manipulation
He produces no evidence that has actually taken place. It might take place is about as much as one can say.
- People are staying home anyway
I wonder how one would go about quantifying that?
- Masks, good hygiene, and other behavioral changes may make a difference
Again, I wonder how one would go about quantifying that.
before lurching uncontrollably onto the obvious explanation:
- Maybe luck, or something else we don’t fully understand, is playing a role
I can think of any number of other possible reasons, presumably subsumed within that category. How about this one? Not everyone is equally susceptible to the virus and the most susceptible contracted it early.
I wouldn’t be surprised if all of the above were not factors in one degree or another but the fact remains that the feared surge has not happened. As we learn more about SARS-Cov-2 it will be interesting to see if we become better able to evaluate to what degree each of those factors actually explains what is happening.