In his latest Washington Post column David Ignatius notes that subtlety is more effective than bluster:
The calmest voices lately have been the Chinese, as they glide into the vacuum left by Trump as he embraced “America First†and abandoned leadership of the global order. China’s approach, of course, is to win wars without fighting, as enunciated 2,500 years ago by master strategist Sun Tzu. Beijing doesn’t ram boats or buzz aircraft carriers in the South China Sea; the Chinese slowly turn reefs into islands and then fortify them into air bases. By the time people see what’s happening, it’s too late. Their answer to disruption is stealth.
Commentators often argue that the United States should penalize Putin’s aggression by matching his tough tactics. “NATO should look at increasing naval patrols in the Black Sea,†argued John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, during an Atlantic Council briefing this week. But I’d tend to agree with Mark Galeotti, a British Kremlin-watcher, who tweeted: “Calls for Western naval forces to be sent into Azov [are] dangerous, impractical & illegal.â€
Far better than tit-for-tat U.S. bluster and belligerence would be quiet, hard-nosed use of power. Make Russia pay a price for its aggression, but invisibly. Pressure Saudi Arabia’s crown prince to stabilize his regime and stop the fighting in Yemen, but silently.
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
Stealth is, of course, one way but there are others. Possessing overwhelming power, for example. Your enemy’s conviction that he will lose any confrontation is a great weapon. Nothing has undermined America’s power more than the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. 15 years of war not only saps your resources and your willingness to fight, it looks weak and possessing overwhelming power must be complemented by the perception that you possess overwhelming power.
Another great weapon is for your enemy or, at least, your enemy’s people to want what you want. We didn’t defeat the Soviet Union just by possessing overwhelming power and being perceived to have overwhelming power. The Russian people wanting the same things we do was a powerful supporting factor. We didn’t defeat communism simply by possessing weapons. We did it with blue jeans and canned goods.
Having a social and political system that is seen to be dysfunctional or unjust works against us. We must work to make our systems just and effective and be perceived as such.
“blue jeans and canned goods”
Which in the case of China might be the free flow of information. They want to rein it in, but there may already be too many Chinese emigrants all over the world to close China off ala North Korea.
“…..the Chinese, as they glide into the vacuum left by Trump as he embraced “America First†and abandoned leadership of the global order.â€
Is this man crazy? You mean the global order of placating Iran or allowing China to evicerate our manufacturing base? I’d abandon that too. Trump gave Iran the finger, is challenging China in trade, and has a Russian posture that can only be described as harsh, and not a mealy mouthed “reset.â€
I think the insight your comments bring is our internal dysfunction. We are busy playing corporate power games while our competitors move forward. “Content†to let Mueller proceed just to cover for DoJ/CIA misdeeds or facilitate political vendettas are we? Me, not so much.
“Beijing doesn’t ram boats or buzz aircraft carriers in the South China Sea; the Chinese slowly turn reefs into islands and then fortify them into air bases. By the time people see what’s happening, it’s too late. Their answer to disruption is stealth.”
Well, that is just BS. The US government and all the regional governments knew exactly what China was doing back in the early 1990’s. As a young analyst, I wrote on and briefed the topic at that time.
The Chinese have also rammed and buzzed plenty of foreign ships (regional fishing vessels mostly, as I recall), sinking some, in various disputes in the SCS going back at least 1/4 century.
There is nothing stealth about any of this, it’s more like idiots sticking their head in the sand. The present state of affairs was predictable and was predicted.
That’s one aspect of China one can’t ignore – they plan and play the long game. They are still on the course they set a decade ago and their goals and strategy are not mysterious or hidden.
You know, I read Andy’s comment, and Dave’s, and my blood starts to boil. Maybe just in an irascible mood today. I was well aware of Chinese dumping of steel way back in the day. And I am/was in the business of buying and operating businesses under full assault by the Chinese. 25 years.
But let’s take a step back. Our illustrious governance crew is busy covering up for the nasty shenanigans of Obama/DoJ/FBI/CIA and HRC. And this character Mueller, with just an awful track record despite the slobbering adulation, is doing exactly what he is accused of – a witch hunt. Nothing but ruining people over process crimes his investigation creates. Collusion? Obstruction. Nope. When do they dunk Trump to see if he floats?
Now we have this: News Item: NY real estate magnate engages in real estate transactions in major cities. Attempts to market property with marquee tenant. Well blow me over. Meanwhile, presumed president in waiting and hubby get outrageous contributions and speaking fees for, ahem, sage insights, but now………………….get bupcus for speaking. Damndest thing. I guess they ran out of sage insights. Suspicious?? Crickets.
In a debate in the Romney/Obama election the now hated satanic Russians were made out to be goodfellas, and Romney mocked for his distrust of them. The left and press ate it up. Now they are an existential threat, and Trump their puppet.
And now we have China, the real threat. What with opioid imports, intellectual property theft, regional designs and destroy you if we can trade policies. And morons everywhere wring their hands over, to use DMaticonis favorite, “unwise trade policies.” Are you shitting me? This is a horrible and dangerous government. Like Saudi Arabia, but with big guns. Who speaks for the displaced workers? The murdered intelligence people? I could go on. All because they hate the winner of an election.
Internal politics, and a supine press that has become the mouthpiece for one set of political goals is a clear and present danger to this country. Politics as football and entertainment just doesn’t cut it when you have serious issues. The Chinese must think we are fools.
OK, enough.
Nice rant! Lots of emotion and little fact, but good rants get that way.
Steve