It’s good news that the WSO from the F-15 downed by Iranian fire has been rescued. Hopefully, his injuries are not too severe.
I have continued to follow the U. S.-Israeli war on Iran as closely as I could through open sources, particularly the Institute for the Study of War, and the usual limitations that entails. To the best of my ability to determine the following is the present status of the war:
- The U. S. is not losing the war in operational terms.
- The number of Iranian counter-attacks have largely plateaued and they have not been particularly effective.
- The Iranians can probably maintain their present level of counter-attack for an extended period.
- The Iranian regime is unlikely to surrender.
Taken together, these conditions suggest a conflict in which the U.S. is neither losing nor on a clear path to winning, and in which the definition of ‘victory’ remains unclear. I continue to think that the war is illegal and imprudent. That does not imply that I want the Iranian theocracy and/or the IRGC to win.
