There has been no more Israeli bombing or shelling. What Hezbollah missiles have been fired have landed in Lebanon. Israel has begun to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon:
BEIRUT, Lebanon – Israel began slowly pulling out forces from southern Lebanon and made plans to hand over territory Tuesday on the first full day of a tense cease-fire that already has been tested by skirmishes and rocket fire.
But Israeli and Hezbollah forces avoided any escalation, raising hopes that the U.N.-imposed pact could stick, as governments rushed to assemble international troops to deploy in southern Lebanon and firm up the peace.
Lebanon has begun to deploy its troops in southern Lebanon (ibid):
Lebanon’s Defense Minister Elias Murr said a Lebanese force of 15,000 soldiers could be on the north side of the Litani River by the end of the week. But they still must cross the river and try to enforce the central government’s control over Hezbollah areas for the first time in decades.
It’s unclear precisely what the composition of the expanded UNIFIL force will be or what its mission is. Italy, France, Malaysia, Turkey, and Indonesia have all volunteered forces.
Those measures would satisfy the requirements of operative paragraphs 1 and 2 of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. After that it begins to get considerably murkier. Operative paragraph 3:
Emphasises the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon;
The status of this at this point seems to be:
- Hezbollah has refused to disarm voluntarily
- Lebanon has refused to disarm Hezbollah (and in all likelihood doesn’t have the ability to do so)
- whether the expanded UNIFIL has the mission to disarm Hezbollah by force is obscure
Would the nations who have volunteered troops for the expanded UN force continue their support if that were the mission? I have my doubts.
We’ll have to wait and see how long the ceasefire may hold. If it holds for any length of time, a lot can happen.
In my post from the weekend on the winners and losers from this entire affair I neglected to mention one party in the “Losers” column: the Palestianians. See here:
For Israel the war also raises serious questions about another unilateral withdrawal of settlers, this time from the West Bank. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the opposition Likud Party, spoke for many Israelis on Monday in saying that the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 produced this war, and that the unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip a year ago produced a Hamas electoral victory and continued instability and rocket fire.
While Mr. Olmert was elected on a platform of another withdrawal, opinion polls indicate that Israelis are almost evenly divided on the plan, which is probably enough to kill it.
The Lebanese war also raises even more serious questions, suggests Shai Feldman, director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis, about the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Israel respected the international border with Lebanon as verified by the United Nations, and it was Hezbollah that violated the border. “If international borders mean nothing,†Mr. Feldman asked, “why should the Israeli public support a withdrawal from the West Bank to create a Palestinian state?â€
Preserving the idea of a two-state solution is one reason Mr. Olmert went to war, Mr. Feldman said. And it is one reason the Security Council acted as strongly as it did to defend the integrity of the international border and mandate an expanded United Nations force to protect it. But whether Israelis will trust those guarantees is yet another open question.
