There’s something that I think is at risk of being lost in all of the huggamuggah about the impeachment inquiry. We need to think very clearly about the U.S. interest in cultivating a relationship with Ukraine. To the best of my ability to determine, all of those encouraging a close relationship between Ukraine and the U.S. are either a) Ukrainians by birth or b) unreconstructed Cold Warriors. I’m not challenging anyone’s patriotism, just pointing out that just as Ireland looms larger in the thinking of Irish-Americans than would reflect the U.S.’s actual interest in Ireland, it shouldn’t be entirely surprising if Ukraine looms larger in the thinking of Ukrainian-Americans than actually reflects a more general American interest.
I’m a skeptic about cultivating a close relationship with Ukraine. It didn’t become a distinct Soviet republic until the 1950s; it had been an actual part of Russia for hundreds of years. And Russia is quite sensitive about the foreign policies of former Soviet republics. Is it really in the U.S. interest to aggravate the already tense relationship between the U.S. and Russia? Our two countries are, after all, the only places on earth equipped to render the earth uninhabitable.
Ukraine provides us good leverage WRT Russia (which we should use) and not much else. It’s a “nation” that is unlikely to develop the coherent national identity and social cohesion necessary for it to be stable and well-governed.
Ukraine is the one place where neocon hatreds and delusions could produce a large scale shooting war with Russia. Russia would win that war, unless we went nuclear, in which case everyone loses. Russia might also take the opportunity to reoccupy the Baltics, which they could do, too. Hopefully, they would draw the line at the Polish border.
It’s more sensitive than Latvia or Estonia because of the hierarchy of values I’ve mentioned before:
Russians
Slavs
Orthodox
The Ukrainians are Slavs; the Latvians aren’t.
Ukraine has been linked to Russian for over a thousand years. Russia converted to Christianity in Crimea in 988. One linguist I read stated that Russian and Ukrainian speakers can understand each other unlike speakers of Mandarin and Cantonese Chinese. It should be obvious that Ukraine is more important to Russia than the US.
I think native born Ukrainian Americans are to tiny in number to influence US policy. It is neocons and others who want the US to police the world. The same crowd that pushed for Montenegro to join NATO.
My favorite wisecrack about the speakers of Slavic languages is that they can all understand each other—they just pretend not to. And concerning the Chinese “dialects” I’ve noted before that those are different languages that share a common orthography.
And yet Lt. Col. Vindman was born in Ukraine and Marie Yovanovitch was born in Canada to Ukrainian parents. You don’t need to be numerous to affect policy—just well-positioned.
This is not unique. Zbigniew Brzezinski was Polish. Hatred of Russia is a uniting thread.
“To the best of my ability to determine, all of those encouraging a close relationship between Ukraine and the U.S. are either a) Ukrainians by birth or b) unreconstructed Cold Warriors.”
I’ll leave it to others to decide on how much involvement in Ukraine is warranted. But I’d note that the train seems to have left the station. In 2014 the administration of Hawaiian born B. Obama, a well known unreconstructed Cold Warrior, and Harry Reid’s Congress initiated (championed, actually) the Ukraine Support Act. Modest at first, it grew, as happens in Washington, to $2B, $3B and eventually $7B between direct aid and US loan guarantees. Big $$$, in loan guarantees, general assistance, law enforcement reform, training of security forces. Oh, and advisors. Lots of advisors. Democrat advisors. Greg Craig. Tad Devine. Tony Podesta. Mark Penn. John Alazone. You know, guys who could nurture Ukraine along in energy and general commerce, banking, politics…….(and other stuff not relevant here) And of course, Joe Biden was the Big Effing Deal, the Point Man.
And…. In best Columbo style. “Sir, just one more thing.”
It seems that concurrently a certain Devon Archer requested a WH meeting with The Point Man. Something about yoga poses, and perhaps plans to develop the Ukraine oil and gas industry. Days later, 5 to be exact, Air Force 2 is whisking away to Ukraine for high level meetings. Within days, well, one day, Mr. Archer is named to the board of Burisma. Within weeks so is Hunter Biden. More aid ensues.
Funny thing, though. Burisma’s owner, a Chappie named Kolomoisky, Moisky to his friends, has $2B of the aid put in his bank. And then, dammit, it disappears. It happens. And wouldn’t you know, by time all is done, most of the $7B can’t be accounted for. Shit happens.
Not to worry, later on, just as Shokin is zeroing in, The Point Man gets him, well, orders him, fired. And further, St Marie Yovanovitch later also starts telling the Ukranians who they can investigate…..or not. Of course, this week Mr. Kent and Mr Vidman attempt to inform us this is just crazy conspiracy stuff. But FOIA requests (oh those pesky requests) have turned up source documents confirming those, uh, crazy conspiracy theories. You know, documents of correspondence between Kent and St Marie herself. (and St Marie is of Ukranian descent you say. Heh) Looks like the underside of the rug might not get lumpy. I’m sure the patriotic Adam Schiff will get right on it. Although I’m sure you all know all about this. Its been in the papers…..
I’ll tell you one thing, though, I’m not getting into this mess. Did you know if you actually want to inquire as to how $7B of US taxpayer money vaporizes, why The Point Man’s son gets paid outrageous sums by a guy who frauds the US out of $2B, or why a bunch of people who’s loyalties and career’s depend on Ukraine, why, they might bitch and moan at you, claiming you are clearly a Russian stooge who most certainly should be impeached. Did you know that?
I know. Crazy. Oh, and sir, just one more thing. Being Hawaiian born, and not widely known as an unreconstructed Cold Warrior, just what was the interest of B Obama in Ukraine?
Obama delegated his Ukraine policy to Biden and Biden is, indeed, an unreconstructed Cold Warrior.
Point taken Guarneri, but there is no law against rewarding the Princlings at present. So what do you propose?