I don’t think that the editors at Bloomberg quite appreciate the situation that China’s leaders are in:
To its credit, this week’s U.S. operation to challenge Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea was measured. China has good reason to ensure its response is, too.
In the Navy’s carefully calibrated mission, a guided-missile destroyer and a pair of surveillance planes passed within 12 nautical miles of two artificial islands that China has recently reclaimed from the sea. Under international law, these formerly submerged reefs have no territorial seas. By distinguishing its actions from the “innocent passage” that ships claim when moving through another nation’s waters, the U.S. made clear that piling up thousands of tons of sand gives China no special claim to surrounding waters.
U.S. officials responded to reporters’ queries but didn’t overhype the operation. And while some critics complained that the U.S. had waited too long to act, the timing was fortuitous. Chinese leaders, preoccupied this week with a Communist Party plenum in Beijing, have thus far confined their outrage to diplomatic complaints.
What materialized from that plenum was a confession that they’d been wrong, didn’t expect the economy to grow nearly as fast as it has been, and that they don’t know what to do about it.
IMO there has probably been no more dangerous time, at least in terms of the relationship between China and the United States, at any point during my lifetime. China’s leaders no doubt see themselves on the edge of a precipice. One step in the wrong direction could lead to disaster.
I’m not suggesting that the United States should not challenge China’s expansionist claims in the South China Sea. We must. But there’s a risk that China’s military leaders if not its political leaders will see their own salvation in fomenting a war with the United States. There’s nothing like a good war to distract the people from their own concerns and motivate them to rally around.
