After my post on the econometric prediction that the odds are against the Democratic candidate prevailing in November, I thought you might be interested in another prediction, this time from a political scientist who studies election behavior. From The Daily Caller:
A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
His model has successfully called the winner in every election since 1912 with the exception of the 1960 election. Here’s the point that’s too many are ignoring:
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries and caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The emphasis is mine.
Don’t construe this or the previous post as my rooting for the Republicans. Far from it. What I think is that:
- the dynamics of American presidential elections favors a change of parties
- the present approval rate of the incumbent favors a change of parties
- Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate
That the Democratic Party can’t drum up any candidates who are less than 65 years old is a scandal and an outrage.
His model has successfully called the winner in every election since 1912 with the exception of the 1960 election.
Some people believe he probably got that one right, too. 😉
That the Democratic Party can’t drum up any candidates who are less than 65 years old is a scandal and an outrage.
Well, they did dig up one such candidate, and then he couldn’t get any traction because he was too straight white male. Oh, and his city burnt down. That was no fault of his, but it hardly mattered.
Seriously, when your campaign can’t be judged any more successful than Lincoln Chaffee’s or George Pataki’s, you should probably give up on politics.
I would question the unity of the GOP if Trump wins. Or if they stab him in the back and Rubio wins.
I think his basic assessment is correct. It is hard to win a third term in a row. Hillary does suck. The problem with his model is that it does not take into account the GOP candidate. Has any candidate for POTUS won with the kind of unfavorables Trump generates?
Steve
This election, though, seems to defy most predictions, and doesn’t seem to stay within any of the conventional perimeters called for in prior elections. I do agree that the electorate does tire of one party’s dominance for two terms. That gives the Republicans the edge. But, what Modulo questions, “the unity of the GOP should Trump win”, is a worthwhile consideration. Many of the mainstream republicans are internally cramping over the idea of Trump being their candidate. Apparently even marriages and friendships are being strained by the contrariness that normally like-minded people are showing in the GOP race — Trump versus other candidates. People seem to be either very unhappy or exhilarated over the fact that Trump seems to be on the verge of capturing the nomination — or “running the table” in the primaries. It’s just weird and worrisome, all at the same time.
I agree with the analysis, but wonder if this election is different. Trump isn’t a conventional candidate and he could certainly be a big enough factor to break the model’s assumptions.
I like him. Don’t judge him by his rhetoric. When he wins the general, you will see a very different Trump. He’s not crazy, it’s strategy. HILLARY SAYS WE NEED HER BECAUSE OF HOPE AND CHANGE, go figure.
I preferred Martin O’Malley to all but two, maybe three, of the candidates running this cycle. But the others I preferred are John Kasich, Jeb Bush and, maybe Marco Rubio. Alas, I’m the wrong demo.