Although I disagree with some of his other observations in the column, I agree with Michael Barone’s main point—there will be no durable Obama coalition analogous to the FDR coalition of 80 year ago:
Why has the Democratic Party fared so poorly under Obama’s leadership? I can see two reasons: one ideological, one demographic.
Start with demographics. The Obama coalition, even more than Bill Clinton’s, is based on overwhelming support from constituencies with some conflicting interests. It’s a top-and-bottom coalition: he carried the very lowest and highest income and education groups, while his support sagged among those in the middle.
His strongest groups are blacks and gentry liberals — the same two groups he gathered together when he got to design his own state Senate district in 2002. Majorities of both groups still support him, but perhaps with diminished enthusiasm.
[…]
That gets us to ideology. Bill Clinton was credited with competence and acceptable ideology, which made his party competitive in the early 2000s and well-positioned to take advantage of George W. Bush’s perceived incompetence (Iraq, Katrina) in 2006 and 2008.
President Obama’s ideology — expanded government, Obamacare — has been less widely acceptable, and his reputation for competence is currently in tatters. He was able to eke out re-election with a reduced percentage by good organization. But he leaves his party in trouble.
I think that Mr. Barone leaves something basic out: the president has no stomach for cultivating friendships, crafting alliances, making deals, or forging compromises. Or building a coalition. Although getting more votes than the other guy is a necessary part of politics it’s not all there is to the craft. The president’s popularity is personal popularity or maybe even the popularity of his biography. That is not the stuff of a durable coalition.
I am fairly certain this is wrong. The Republicans are washed up. They are done. They will never be a dominate force in US politics. Everybody loves the Democrats, or so, I have been assured.
Hubris has a way of biting you in the ass.
Note that I’m not making the claim that the Democrats are a spent force. Quite the contrary if the Republicans take the Senate this time around in all likelihood the Democrats will take it back next time around. And I’d say the odds were pretty fair that the Democratic candidate will be elected in 2016.
What I’m saying is that Democrats will rely on the same old coalition rather than the one being claimed in 2008 and 2012.
I think that Mr. Barone leaves something basic out: the president has no stomach for cultivating friendships, crafting alliances, making deals, or forging compromises.
I think this is part of competence for the job. If you don’t like that kind of BS, you’re going to suck at the job.
You don’t think there’s maybe a small, little, tiny, teensy-weeny bit of blame to attach to the Republican unwillingness to cooperate with Obama, from the very first days of his administration?
I’ll make a small prediction here. Digging in their heels and resisting to the bitter end has become a fun and profitable game for Republican politicians, and they will resort to it henceforth whenever they find themselves in opposition to the White House. If HRC gets elected in 2016 and is re-elected in 2020, her period in office is going to look an awful lot like Obama Term-3 and Term-4. And so on, for decades to come.
Another prediction: What works for Republicans probably works for Democrats too. I don’t think any of us have any real understanding of just how fun and exciting American politics can become in the remaining portion of the century.
Of course there is. But Congressmen represent districts. The president represents the whole country and, consequently, has a greater obligation to do what’s necessary to make government work.
Well, Pam Bondi won re-election as FL AG. For some reason people this would be close, but I’m not sure won’t.
Her opponent’s concession speech was kind of funny. After talking about his undying support for abortion, gay marriage and government take-over of the health industry, he said we need to find the things that bring us together.
Can’t be certain, but Gov Butt-plug has been holding a steady three point lead over Governor Fuck-face as the totals roll in. The question is how many cars are driving around in south Florida with boxes of ballots in the trunk. (This is not an unknown thing in Florida.) If enough Caddie El Dorados and Escapades are on the road looking for a home, Gov Fuck-face may get his job back, but it’s looking more doubtful as we pass 80% reporting.
And I’m feeling like a dope. I should have voted write-in for governor and my House seat. I should have voted for William James Myers, as it turns out he’s still alive, living over in Cocoa. Could have voted him for AG too. Oh well, a missed opportunity. Hopefully he will still be around in 2016.
Yikes! That should have read:
Well, Pam Bondi won re-election as FL AG. For some reason people thought this would be close, but I’m not sure why.
And Gov BP continues to hold a 122,000 vote lead on Gov FF with 85% reporting.
They’re saying turnout here in Orange County was 40%. That’s high and im not sure I buy it, but what can you do in a Democratic county? Plus this is John Morgan’s home base, and who knows what he’s up to. (He’s perhaps the largest ambulance chased in the state, one of the biggest in the country, a major national fund-raiser (Obama has been to his house many times), and Charlie Crist’s boss/owner.)
The medical marijuana amendment is falling short (expect John Morgan to cry some more), but now I’m seeing what’s going on. The three south Florida counties haven’t turned in their ballots yet. As typical they’re waiting till all the votes have been counted in Pensacola, where the polls close an hour later, before they start counting. So now I’m thinking that Fuck Face is going to win. Seeing Debbie Wasserman-Schultz looks more smug than usual reporting that south Florida isn’t counting their ballots, so I’m thinking the fix is in.
And here comes the surge! Scott lost most of his lead when south Florida started reporting. Looks like they took votes away from him! Wow, south Florida politics is more and more like Venezuela’s every year.
At least the most important Florida Congressman got Re-elected. John Mica is a pork-barreling BEAST, and he even wins with all the otherwise snootty white folk in Winter Park. They know who butters their bread!
Looks like Andy is winning his school board referendum, BTW.
Ho-ho! They just updated vote totals. Charlie Crist’s vote total increased by 20,000. Rick Scott’s vote total went up by ZERO!
And they changed the % reporting from 97% to 95%. Uh-huh!