At Time Aryn Baker speculates on who will be elected as the next pope:
Any baptized man can become pope, but traditionally he (and it is always a ‘he’) is elected from the college of Cardinals. This year, possible contenders range from Francis’ liberal-leaning secretary of state, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, to Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, an ultra-conservative and outspoken critic of Francis. We could also see, for the first time, an American pope, a pope from Sub-Saharan Africa, or an Asian pope.
With campaigning frowned upon, consultations secretive, and coalitions in constant flux, it is impossible to predict an outcome or even a list of top contenders. “The trash heaps of church history are littered with the carcasses of journalists who have tried to predict the next pope,” wrote long-time Vatican analyst John L. Allen in the National Catholic Reporter in a prelude to a list of potential candidates to replace Pope John Paul II in 2005. As if to prove his point, Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger, who greeted the world from the St. Peter’s balcony as Pope Benedict XVI a few days later, didn’t even make Allen’s list. Argentina’s Jorge Mario Bergoglio did—but it took another round before he was named Pope Francis in 2013, upon Benedict’s resignation.
She considers seven prospective candidates.
I don’t honestly know whether any of those mentioned will become the next pope. Experience suggests if will be someone else. What I do know is that the conclave may give us a rare window into what the most senior members of the hierarchy think is the gravest challenge facing the Church—its changing “center of gravity”, loss of European influence (another version of the same thing), faction within the Church, social issues, or something else.
Just a side remark. The papacy (“Bishop of Rome”) should be the oldest or the among the oldest institutions / offices still in existence today. There’s evidence of the office since the late 1st century AD (ie just short of 2000 years).
Somehow this mysterious process of succession has worked for the Catholic Church.
That was a surprise. I don’t know how to interpret the cardinals choosing Pope Leo XIV. Concerns about Trump, the US church, or simply a reflection the position of personnel management is very influential indeed?
He was a missionary in Peru for a long time. I suspect it’s an effort to continue reaching out to Latin America while maybe trying to shore the church in the US. Or maybe it’s just that he held pretty influential positions in the past.
Steve