I was prepared to agree with David Shribman’s take on contemporary developments in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette but I couldn’t get past my disagreement with him about the relative importance of COVID-19 in the scheme of things:
In the past century, the United States has lived through several hinges of history.
World War II changed the role of women in American life, transformed the nation into a global superpower, created a baby boom and a mass consumer culture and — no one says everything changes — failed to redeem the “Double V†victory that the Pittsburgh Courier, the indispensable Black newspaper, yearned for: broad victory for freedom overseas and broad freedom at home.
The combination of the Vietnam era, the youth rebellion and the Watergate scandal produced a national skepticism of authority and institutions that we live with today. Though the Trump rebellion might be ascribed by historians to the age of disruption begun in the high-tech age, do not forget that the 45th president was born in the first year of the baby boom, and that he ingested that sense of rebellion in his youth.
The implications of the COVID-19 virus cannot be overstated. By month’s end, the American death toll may reach 700,000, about 12% more than in the Civil War, the deadliest conflict in our history.
The Civil War split the country, shattered families, altered economic relationships and created a new kind of politics that arguably dominated American politics for a century. (It was only in the late 1960s that there were cracks in the Democratic Solid South, an immutable force in politics that assisted military mobilization in the years leading to World War II but resisted racial integration in the years following World War II.)
That is what is called in the trade an “invidious comparison”. Not to diminish the hurt and harm of COVID-19 but the difference between 750,000 deaths in a population of 35 million people and the same number of deaths in a population nearly ten times that is simply enormous. That’s especially true since those who died in the American Civil War were disproportionately men, men were very needed by their families for economic support, and there was little or no social safety net. There’s simply no comparison between the misery caused by the Civil War and that caused by COVID-19.
The question we should ask is how cardinal a moment was the Spanish flu epidemic in U. S. history? That is widely thought (with some controversy) to have brought 650,000 deaths in a population of 110 million, a much more comparable situation. I would submit that it was almost completely unimportant.
At this point I think it’s just too early to tell how persistent or pervasive the undermining of confidence in American institutions. I think that regardless of ideology or political affiliation we should be able to agree that a broad swathe of American institutions have not exactly covered themselves in glory during the pandemic. But for goodness sake the pandemic is no Civil War. I don’t even think it’s a World War II.
There’s also a big psychological difference between death via an invisible disease that has no political agenda and war, which always has a political agenda. Humans simply do not consider such deaths equal.
I agree that institutions have not covered themselves in glory but by the same token, they are also under assault. Will to power, expediency, and justifying ends are now the norm among our political class, high above the legitimacy of those institutions. The notion that “we must destroy the village to save it” has become the normative political view. No one cares about reform unless it serves ideological or partisan ends.
Truman’s integration of the military in ‘48 was a seminal change.
As for COVID-19, an argument could be made that transfer of wealth from the vulnerable of advanced age to younger heirs is a good thing.
More financial leverage to people with more energy and ambition.
I think that from the point-of-view of the partisan or ideologue reform is not reform unless it serves ideological or partisan ends.
Because of the way our systems work many if not most of the people who have died have little in the way of wealth.
Well I’m in between.
2020-2021 is not 1860-1864 or 1942-1945, but it is qualitatively different then say 1968, 2001, 2008; three famously traumatic years.
The difference maker is how COVID disrupted daily life has become all Americans (and really the world). Schools were shut for 1.5 years, the on/off lockdowns; WFH. The government responses were unimaginable outside of total war — eviction moratoriums, deficit spending in excess of 15% GDP/year, broad travel bans on international travel.
Many of the changes have long term consequences (WFH, school closures, fiscal deficits); which means we can’t go back. I agree with assessment that historians will be able to label “life pre-COVID” and “life post-COVID”.
Here I think is the difference from the Civil War or WWII — no historian can frame COVID through the Whig theory of history. It can’t be spun as a victory that came at some great cost. This period may be remembered more like WWI in that respect.
Covid-19 may be passing, but the effect of lockdowns, school closings, interruptions in production and distribution are still with us and still playing out. We are in the midst of a world-wide fuel shortage, especially natural gas and coal, caused partly by the policies associated with Covid-19 and partly by Green hysteria. Inflation is rising and already high. We might be in for another round of Volker-level interest rates. Remember 21% mortgages?
I would wait a couple more years before characterizing the impact of Covid-19.
PS. You need to add 2 million civilians, half black slaves, and nearly all in the South to the death toll of the Civil War. Sherman’s March to the Sea was genocide writ large. That’s 2.75 million out of 35 million, 8% of the whole population. But most of the deaths (2.4 million?, 27% of 9 million) occurred in the South. The South was devastated for decades afterwards.
I’m not sure I’d reduce the issue to a study of fractions. I think your point on invidious comparisons stands with this:
“That’s especially true since those who died in the American Civil War were disproportionately men, men were very needed by their families for economic support, and there was little or no social safety net. ”
Said another way, its the comprehensive impact more than the death numbers. The invidious criticism has been leveled against comparisons of a disease to other events, like 9/11 or war. I disagree. What is the impact? If one really looks at the costs of covid one must also look at the effects on civil liberties, childhood education, economic hardship and mental illness just to name a few. Unfortunately, these are largely self inflicted, and for the worst reasons: politics, control and economic gain.
If we get past numerical observations we would note that both the late 50’s and late 60’s pandemics were severe, but our response completely different. Who remembers those? No one.
The Spanish flue was relatively inconsequential a few years down the road. Sadly, covid may be a totally different story.
I think historians will mostly note that we were very poorly prepared for something that had a 100% chance of happening, but no one knew when it would happen. With that uncertainty no one wanted to spend the money to be prepared. I think they will note that the response was largely the same across all first world countries but it varied in efficacy depending upon the individual country. The US got off to a worse start than most due to poor leadership, but we caught up and then passed most of the rest of the world with our vaccine development. Alas, we then fell to the back of the pack again with our anti-vaxxers.
That said, the consequences will be minimal. Kids are resilient. The economy is bouncing back, even though the private sector was surprisingly unprepared for the rebound. Some people will make the case it helped deepen the political divide but as the Breitbart guy pointed out, conservatives will oppose anything liberals support (and it is mostly true the other way around) so that was already there.
Steve
I take the other side of the bet; kids are resilient — but depriving children of education for 1 to 2 years leaves a mark.
In China, they shut schools for 3 years during the cultural revolution. One can see the negative effects on that generation even to this day. So far, the data that comes back from students here are consistent with what happened to Chinese students then.
It depends. The very best students will thrive being out of school. Most students will probably be set back a little. The students who need the most help will be hurt the most.
“I think historians will mostly note that we were very poorly prepared for something that had a 100% chance of happening, but no one knew when it would happen. With that uncertainty no one wanted to spend the money to be prepared.”
I think that’s mostly correct, although I think its more than just money. Fauci was certainly willing to direct funding for gain of function research to an uncontrolled entity, who basically had an industrial accident, despite his Clintonian parsing. If we are going to prepare for rare events we at least might consider not funding the creation of them.
“The US got off to a worse start than most due to poor leadership, but we caught up and then passed most of the rest of the world with our vaccine development. Alas, we then fell to the back of the pack again with our anti-vaxxers.”
That’s interesting, an unknown virus, masks, 6 ft distancing, a Fauci who changed positions almost by the week, a Nancy Pelosi and NY mayor who poo poohed the virus in the early going, a governor who was glorified while he packed the infected into nursing homes and a vaccine developed under you-know-who’s watch, but you-know-who showed poor leadership. Now, we are back of the pack not due to leadership issues, but the people. And fearless leader let’s people pour into the country. BTW – how are Israel and India doing with vaccines?
“The students who need the most help will be hurt the most.”
Bingo. A totally avoidable situation. Ah, sweet leadership, with a pinch of caving to the teachers unions. Heh. Well, a dollop. Well, smothered, actually.
Speaking of Fauci and his funding, and Joe Biden’s fondness for the Chinese:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-PCR-test-orders-soared-before-first-reported-COVID-case