I’m not as concerned as James Pethokoukis is about the prospect of abandoning free trade. Perhaps I would be if what were being negotiated were free trade but it isn’t and I’m not. I wish he were as energetic in condemning managed trade agreements as intolerable affronts to freedom as he is in critiquing their opponents.
However, I fully endorse his conclusion:
Those lost manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back in large numbers, though technological advances may mean we can create new ones here. At the same time, we need to upgrade our national safety net for workers hurt by trade — including helping them move to where new jobs are –while also preparing them for new opportunities. As The Economist concludes: “If America is to go on reaping the gains from trade, it must ensure it compensates those who lose out. You can oppose protectionism, or you can oppose redistribution. It is getting harder to do both.â€
I see few signs of that right now. Quite to the contrary, discontent is rising and we shouldn’t be surprised at the pushback that, for example, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is receiving.
Oh nonsene/ You act like “Globalism” is a force of nature–it is not; it is just a large special isnterestgroup.
!) it is specious to bring up automation in this context; they are not crewating new automated factories in Mexico. We are decades away from fully automated plant, and the whole inustries we have outsourced are no all uniformly going to be fully automated soon.
2) You could stop it simply by law. To make an extreme case, put people who off shore in jail and pile on the tariffs. There is not threat at all of international competition from others who outsource–let them destroy their societies. America can supply its economic needs just fine, and limit imports to luxury items. This is how it has been for most of our history.
The “crisis: is that our elites have betray the nation in the pursuit of a false god of a globalist world order. We cannot go on like this as as nation. It will be address sooner or later, even if it comes to blood.
People that make all these claims about the inevitability of globalism or “the jobs are not coming back suffer from either a lack of common sense, imagination or ar arguing out of bad faith.
You are living in a fantasy world.
How does one do the following calculus?
1,000,000 workers lose their $50k jobs to imports. 1,500,000 Americans save $5,000 per year due to cheaper imported goods. Those who lose their jobs are very visible and easy to sympathize with. Those benefitting are not. Yet the net benefit to Americans is wildly lopsided. Do the math yourself so you get a feel for it.
What would be the affect of placing a tax on consumers to protect those jobs?
That’s just a first cut at dollars. How do you quantify other effects? What are the morals? What are the morals of the regulations and costs of business we put on businesses that result in that desire to import.
Yes, Drew, I can’t believe John Doe doesn’t feel awful about keeping his job if it might mean you have to pay a mark-up for pool supplies for your vacation homes in Florida AND Arizona. What a selfish beast, amiright?
You draw too many unwarranted conclusions, ice. Can you address the question? It’s the one the nation has to come to grips with.
Drew, you are completely happy if half the population loses their jobs if it means the other half get a nice discount on goods. (At least so long as you get to keep yours, of course.) You’ve made that clear enough.
I’ve got no questions left to answer. I’m finished, though, done. My goose is cooked, and I’ll never work again. And it’s also clear that “the nation” isn’t my nation any more. Both parties and all the elites have made it clear how much they despise me and my kind. (It’s been tremendous fun watching the National Review tell non-rich whites how much they hate their guts in recent weeks. It’s almost like reading a leftist rag!)
So, not my nation, not my question.
The question you need to answer is, How are you going to keep the other half from coming to your home and taking what you’ve got? With interest? So what’s your plan, Big Guy?
Is it just me, or does anybody else get nervous when the guy or gal showing up at your door to help you has more to gain than you?
[placeholder for my left wing example]
Rich conservatives and Republicans have taken on the poor as their project. The poor unemployed people are now the Rich Man’s Burden.
It is mind boggling. They are the hero of the situation they cause. (I intentionally used a placeholder for the Left because I am not interest in re-arguing with them.)
If Free-Traders were negotiating nuclear missile deal with the USSR, both sides would agree to not manufacture any more, and the free-traders would promptly begin selling the existing ICBM’s to the Soviet Union to reduce the US national debt. “Why would anybody be against reducing the national debt?”
I have a question for the free-traders. The lost manufacturing jobs were adding value to the economy, but when the were relocated to China, the value traded for those goods then went to China. The economy lost value added by workers manufacturing goods, and then, additional value was sent to China as trade for those goods previously produced in the US. Since China does not purchase enough from the US to create jobs for the unemployed workers, there is no corresponding trade that was the entire reason for the free trade.
How do you replace the lost value?
There is only one way to replace the lost value, and that is to print money. Now, a funny thing happens on the way to the printing press. The conservatives and Republicans spend the entire trip denouncing Keynesian economics and policies because you need to print money for them to work, and therefore, these same conservatives and Republicans will expend unlimited amounts of time and energy denouncing the very Keynesian money printing as they are working the printing press.
Actually, the Chinese do trade the value for a US good. They purchase US credit products. This allows the unemployed manufacturing workers to go into debt buying the cheap substandard quality imports, and the Chinese being the wonderful people they are will kill the family pet with toxic pet food, thereby, reducing one expense.
TB, they’re going to replace the value by importing more Third World peasants. Import enough of them & we’re bound to find the next Sergey Brin eventually!
@Icepick
I was starting to worry about you.
They keep saying crap that they must know is nonsense, or maybe, they have said it so often they actually believe it. Now that you are on the outside, look at them. They are like lemmings. One will turn one way, and the others will follow. Rarely do they understand the dumb a$$ sh*t they are repeating, but they keep repeating it.
It is obvious that the concepts behind free trade have escaped them. Of course, these are the same idiots who have not quite gotten the concept of liberating people. Usually, the people being liberated have some desire to be liberated, but as with Walmart shoppers, they will destroy a country and call it progress.
No, ice. For the umpteenth time, I’m just the messenger pointing out that there are competing interests. You come down on the side of workers. That’s fine. But you (no one as far as I can tell) still haven’t provided a coherent way to evaluate the competing interests, other than vote your naked self interest. And that’s fine too. Mine was a simple and legitimate inquiry, still unaddressed.
I recall the days of serving the auto industry and their crap cars. Their attitude was simply “fuck you.” And then came the Japanese and the Germans. Cars have come a long way since then, but wouldn’t have had your approach prevailed.
Drew- The math has gotten too complicated, and things look rigged. In the old days, these are general assumptions, those million people losing jobs quickly went to jobs elsewhere making the same, or more. They did so quickly. That $5000 advantage per consumer was widely spread. The investor class made a profit from moving those jobs out of the country, but not enough to make their incomes grow a lot faster than everyone else.
Today, a lot of those million people never work again. Those who do likely end up in the service sector making $30k. It may take a long time to find new employment. That $5000 is the mean. The large majority of people benefit much less. A few people benefit a lot. And the investor class? They are now the ones who benefit the most from moving jobs out of the country. Their wealth grows much faster than everyone else’s.
So, it is not so clear anymore if the advantages outweigh the costs, especially in the short run. What seems pretty clear is that the one group coming out way ahead is the investor class.
Steve
I was starting to worry about you.
No reason. I’ve been having a good time ignoring all the non-chess news lately, and trading rude jokes with (professional) comedians. (I’ve discovered the real reason comedians like so many jokes about bodily fluids is because they eat very poorly – excrement is always on their minds purely for health reasons!)
I’m only back because in a moment of weakness (food poisoning it turned out) I started falling into bad habits again. Now that I’m feeling better I hope to get back on the wagon again.
I’m just hoping to vote for Trump come November in one last moment of telling the current rulers that I think they’re Number 1, and then hope to ignore all of it. (And if The Donald isn’t on the ballot, I’ll vote for your girl.) It’s just not my country any more. Hell, I should look into giving up my citizenship. I’d be treated better as an illegal alien than as a native.
I recall the days of serving the auto industry and their crap cars. Their attitude was simply “fuck you.†And then came the Japanese and the Germans. Cars have come a long way since then, but wouldn’t have had your approach prevailed.
And I recall that Reagan’s threats and actions had an impact as well, and that a lot of Japanese cars get built in the United States now as a result. Maybe I imagined all that.
…
It isn’t as simple as “Let every other country fuck the American worker in the ass forever so long as the American rich* get richer” vs “Absolute and total protectionism”. Similarly, it isn’t as simple as “Unions are doing the work of the angels” vs “Unions are the work of evil godless communists”. There are a range of options in between. But I admit that these are subtle distinctions, and could only possibly be considered by those of us with the intellects capable of understanding such esoterica as category theory. All the rest of you ignorant assholes are simply too fucking stupid to realize that it isn’t all or nothing in _every_single_matter_ that ever comes up for discussion.
* And their cronies, lackeys and other lick-spittle fluffers, of course.
For the umpteenth time, I’m just the [wealthy asshole rubbing your nose in it from the “right” while Reynolds is the wealthy asshole rubbing your nose in it from the “left”] pointing out that there are competing interests [and that our interests as wealthy people supersede yours, you scumbag piece of shit proletarian fuckwad]. You come down on the side of [other piece of shit proletarian fuckwads]. That’s fine. But you [piece of shit proletarian fuckwads] (no one as far as I can tell) still haven’t provided a coherent way to evaluate the competing interests, other than vote your naked self interest.
Why shouldn’t I vote my own interests? All you rich guys do the same thing. It’s only bad when someone whose interests don’t align with yours does so, apparently.
…
Hmmm. It’s looking like the hemorrhoidectomy didn’t take. I think I’ll sue…..
Today, a lot of those million people never work again.
Funny, seems like just last election cycle you were telling me what a fantastic job you Democratics had done creating the greatest recovery in the history of this or any other universe, and how this was the greatest fucking economy ever (in same) and that I should be killed for even thinking that I wasn’t a prime beneficiary of all the fucking stupendously awesome awesomeness that you and your Democratic Party Brethren had provided for me and mine. Now you’re telling me things aren’t so wonderful. Why, it’s almost like you were lying for your own selfish interests the last time around. (Like I’ve never been lied to by a doctor before….)
“1,000,000 workers lose their $50k jobs to imports. 1,500,000 Americans save $5,000 per year due to cheaper imported goods. ”
I’d question that underlying assumption. It could easily be a million workers losing jobs and 1.5 million Americans save $20 a year instead. Or 100 million Americans save 50 cents. I get the theory, but I don’t the the reality came close to matching the theory.
Andy’s response is similar to what mine would have been but I’d phrase it a bit differently. The example isn’t robust, i.e. it’s very dependent on the numbers that you plug in. It matters considerably whether the savings are $5,000 a year or $5 a year, that’s something that’s hard to predict, and, if you’re trying to come up with a good managed trade deal, you need to predict it. The supporters of the TPP aren’t. They’re just waving “free trade” around like a banner.
@Icepick
People drop off, and we never know what became of them. @Steve Verdon and @Janis Gore are two. I know Janis aggravated a lot of people, but she was going through tough times. I do not like to see anybody hurting, even rich assholes. (I do not mean Janis.) @Zachriel (all 47 of them) pop in and out, but I think he/she/they are young and in school or just starting out. @sam kinda pops in and out, and if I do not see @Jimbino bitching about breeders, I start checking the newspaper for coups in Central or South America.
We are in for a coming storm, and I suspect it is going to make the housing collapse look like an afternoon rain shower. Depending on how things turn out, you might have a lot more neighbors, or the employers could come beating down your door.
You may even be able to start a company helping the formerly paper rich a$$holes adjust to life in the “hood”. You could teach them new skills such as not staring at anybody or carelessly waving their hands or fingers. You could teach them the best to hide their sh*t while loading and unloading the car so nobody decides to rob them in the car or burglarize the house.
I have not been directly affected by free-trade or many of these issues, but I have a brain and eyes. I know the theoretical basis for the arguments better than the vast majority parroting the standard nonsense.
@Drew is a little slicker than most of them, but his argument is basically to use the furniture for firewood and replace it with cheaper versions. The problem is that eventually you are sitting on empty milk crates, and you start burning the wall studs for firewood. Anybody with a few brain cells should be able to see where this ends.
The investor class really believes that the paper they own is no different than a hard asset. They think the housing bubble and Bernie Madoff are things that only happen to the rubes. They can never happen to them. Right now, the central bankers around the world are burning the furniture and pulling out studs to keep the party going, and most of the investor class is too stupid to figure it out. They are partying like it’s 1999, and we know how that turned out.
If Trump or Sen. Sanders are on the ballot, I will vote for them. Hell, I would vote for Bugs Bunny or Fidel Castro just to piss off the establishment and elites. I would crawl over six miles of broken glass to vote for Nicki, but the country is just not ready for a strong black woman who has built a successful business.
Enjoy yourself.
” seems like just last election cycle you were telling me what a fantastic job you Democratics had done creating the greatest recovery in the history of this or any other universe”
Must be another steve, we are pretty common. I have always said it would be a slow recovery, like you would expect after an international banking crisis. Big Rinehart and Rogoff fan. However, I suspect you are just making stuff up. Try to do better if you want to misrepresent what I say. Make it entertaining. Go for it. Or just try dealign with what I actually say. Your choice.
Steve