It isn’t all the uncommon that something I read reminds of the classic movie, The Red Shoes. At the end of the movie, the ballerina heroine has committed suicide but the ballet goes on, her red shoes carried around the stage to where she should have been by one of the other dancers. That was the case with David Ignatius’s most recent Washington Post op-ed:
The centerpiece of Kadhimi’s visit was what he called a “strategic partnership†with Washington, in which the United States will withdraw its remaining combat troops but keep in place a sizable force that can assist in training, intelligence-sharing and other support activities. Kadhimi had told me in Baghdad last month that he wanted such a pact, despite objections from some Iranian-backed Shiite militias.
The surprise for me was how warmly this accord was received by Iraqi factions when Kadhimi returned home. Endorsements came last week from Iraqi nationalist Moqtada al-Sadr, various former prime ministers and even Shiite militia leader Hadi al-Amiri. The Shiite religious leadership under Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf was also said to be pleased, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials.
which I laud as far is goes. But do you notice something about it? Every individual he mentions is an Arab Shi’ite. Iraq has three major ethno-confessional divisions: Shi’ite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. Conspicuous by their absence from Mr. Ignatius’s account are Iraq’s Sunni Arabs and the Kurds. The Kurds have tended to be pro-American, seeing the Amerians as their protectors but DAESH sprang from Iraq’s Sunni Arabs and was ultimately ejected from Iraq by Iraq’s Sunni Arabs.
Even if there’s widespread approval from Shi’a Arabs lack of support from Iraq’s Kurds and Sunni Arabs does not sound to me like a formula for a stable Iraq.
BTW Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is a greater threat to Iran than we are. He’s the most senior Shi’ite cleric and he’s not a Khomeinist. But that’s a subject for a different post. He’s 91 and we’ll miss him when he’s gone.
While Kurds and Sunnis are not mentioned in the article; that’s probably a reflection of editorial decisions (lack of space) then a lack of support.
The Kurds prefer Americans because a US presence is a useful counterbalance to Turkey . While the Sunnis in the political process like to have Americans around to counterbalance Iranian influence.
The fractions in Iraq that wish the US are gone are Sunnis that reject the political process altogether (aka ISIS) or Shite’s that are Iranian proxies.