At Project Syndicate Joschka Fischer, probably more responsible for Europe’s sorry state than any other living individual, declaims that Europe will be the biggest loser from many of the situations unfolding today and it has no choice but to reassert itself as a “real power”:
But the broader danger for the international system stems not from the war in Ukraine (Russia is too weak to pose a truly global threat), but from the deterioration of US-China relations. True, notwithstanding China’s bellicose rhetoric over Taiwan and its aggressive naval exercises in the waters around the island, the confrontation so far is less military than economic, technological, and political. But that is cold comfort, because it is an intensifying zero-sum conflict.
Some of the biggest losers in this confrontation are likely to be Japan and Europe. Chinese firms have built massive production capacities in the automobile industry – especially in electric vehicles (EVs) – and are now poised to outcompete the European and Japanese automakers that have long been globally dominant.
Making matters worse, America’s own response to Chinese competition is to pursue an industrial policy that will come at European and Japanese manufacturers’ expense. Recent legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, provides large subsidies for cars produced in the US. From the US perspective, such policies kill two birds with one stone: protecting large domestic manufacturers and providing them with incentives to pursue EV development.
The eventual outcome will be a thorough reorganization of the global auto industry, with Japan and Europe (primarily Germany) losing competitiveness and market share. And lest we forget, this major economic development represents merely the beginning of a much larger global confrontation and strategic reordering.
Not only must Europe take great pains to preserve its economic model during this reorganization of the global economy. It also must manage high energy costs, the growing digital technology gap vis-Ã -vis the two superpowers, and the urgent need for increased defense spending to counter the new threat from Russia. All these priorities will grow even more urgent as the next US presidential election approaches, given the distinct possibility that Donald Trump could return to the White House.
Europe thus finds itself especially disadvantaged. It resides in an increasingly dangerous region, yet it remains a confederation of sovereign nation-states that have never mustered the will to achieve true integration – even after two world wars and the decades-long Cold War. In a world dominated by large states with growing military budgets, Europe still is not a real power.
When Germany was profiting by its “factory in a box” trade with China, there was no threat. Now that Germany is running a trade deficit with China, it’s a threat. Furthermore, he’s a pacifist who encourages intervention.
As in the United States European military power and global influence are downstream from economic power. I don’t see how Europe preserves its economic model, reduces its reliance on fossil fuels, eschews nuclear power, and reindustrializes all at the same time.
Mit Verlaub, Herr Fischer, Sie sind ein Arschloch.
“I don’t see how Europe preserves its economic model, reduces its reliance on fossil fuels, eschews nuclear power, and reindustrializes all at the same time.”
Its easy. Click your heels three times and repeat: there’s no place like home…..