At Foreign Affairs Stephen Biddle, as puzzled about Ukraine’s strategic objectives as I, counsels against overestimating the effects of deep strikes into Russian territory:
Of course, conducting more extensive deep strikes would help Ukraine. Damaging factories or infrastructure inside Russia might help boost Ukrainian morale, for example, as a small U.S. bombing raid against Tokyo in 1942 did for American morale in World War II. But now, as then, the capability will not transform the military situation on the ground.
With that in mind, Kyiv’s partners should now ask whether the modest military benefits are worth the escalatory risk. The answer will turn on assessments of the likelihood of expanding the conflict and on the risk tolerance of Western governments and publics. The latter is ultimately a value judgment; military analysis alone cannot dictate where to draw the line. What it can do is forecast the battlefield consequences of policy decisions. If the West lifts its restraints on Ukrainian deep strike capability, the consequences are unlikely to include a decisive change in the trajectory of the war.
I can’t help but wonder whether shoring up the motivation of Ukraine’s western supporters might not be Ukraine’s strategic objective in deep strikes into Russian territory.
Russians arent especially good at logistics so it might affect the war that way. It also could make Putin upgrade it from a special military operation to a war. Dont see that as helping Ukraine much.
Steve
The entire Russian leadership, all of them from Putin on down, have been very clear that Russia will retaliate for deep strikes on Russia by attacking targets inside the US. Some of the leaders have hinted that the weapons used may be nuclear, whether tactical or strategic would not matter.
It is not clear who is running our foreign and military policies. It clearly isn’t Biden, who is spending his days dozing on the Delaware shore. Blinken, especially, and Sullivan are too stupid to be in charge. One prays that he she or it is paying attention. Is it really Obama?
Doctorow believes a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia this fall is all but inevitable.
Or is it an effort to shore up home front support? Plenty of articles about draft age males leaving Ukraine, few about them coming back.
It’s Obama.
Here is an interesting post at the late Col. Lang’s site, Turcopolier: Tom67 on Mongolia
I am somewhat saddened that the modern Mongols fear the Chinese and rely upon the Rus for protection. I suspect Genghis is “rolling over in his grave”.