The Last Step

Robert Samuelson points out, quite correctly, that President Obama’s plan to deal with cliamte change doesn’t do much about the problem:

Let’s assume, for simplicity’s sake, that the plan works perfectly. It achieves its goal of reducing carbon emissions from power plants in 2030 by 32 percent from a base year of 2005. Other problems fade. Court challenges to the regulations are rejected. The expansion of solar and wind generation does not lead to less reliable electricity supplies. Greater efficiencies and cheap natural gas avoid sizable consumer rate increases.

Even under these favorable assumptions, Obama’s plan won’t immediately depress global temperatures, which — if the logic of climate change holds — will be higher in 2030 than today.

A refresher course in global warming explains why. What counts are the amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It’s these concentrations that are said to trap heat and raise temperatures. The concentrations have gone from roughly 280 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in preindustrial times, around 1800, to about 315 ppm in 1960 to 400 ppm now. As long as concentrations increase, so does the potential for more warming.

Obama’s plan doesn’t reduce these concentrations. It just cuts — but does not eliminate — the annual emissions into the atmosphere. These emissions raise concentration levels, which are now growing by about 2 ppm per year, says Princeton climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer. True, Obama’s plan might slow this a tad. However, the larger point is that ongoing power plant emissions, though diminished, would continue to boost concentration levels.

to which I presume the president and/or supporters of his plan would retort that it’s just a first step. And that highlights the problem that I have with the president’s approach not just on this issue but on healthcare reform, diplomacy, and just about everything else he’s tackled during his term of office. His plans are invariably just first steps in what would undoubtedly prove to be a lengthy process and yet he lays no groundwork for such a lengthy process.

He has made no alliances, cultivated no friendships in the Congress, done no favors, rolled no logs, produced no movement, groomed no successors. The Democratic Party is weaker now than when he took office. Additionally, his high-handed and imperious approach to politics makes it easy to oppose him. That was brought into bold relief in his remarks last week on the agreement he’s negotiated with Iran. In each case his first step might just as well have been his last step.

Policy is hard. If it weren’t anybody could do it. It is chess and the only game the present incumbent appears to know is slapjack. Whoever the next president may be I hope that he or she has more appetite for the political process than has been evident during President Obama’s term of office.

12 comments… add one
  • jan Link

    “The Democratic Party is weaker now than when he took office.”

    Both political parties are weaker, let alone more divisive since he took office.

  • Gray Shambler Link

    So,,,, You’re a Hater.

  • jan Link

    Gray, if you’re talking to me, I’m disappointed….

  • ... Link

    In other news, China has devalued its currency. Surprisingly, the US markets are lower. Usually they like news that’s good for other countries and bad for America. It’s not like the people running the show actually give a crap about the US.

  • Yeah, I’ve been too busy to post on it. If you look at the history of the dollar-yuan exchange rate over the last twenty years (since they started pegging it to the dollar) and our recent deficit with China, I don’t honestly see how the Chinese can not anticipate some retaliation on our part. I can only speculate that the devaluation is an attempt at controlling their oil imports. Basically, I find it puzzling. Maybe the Chinese economy is in even worse shape than I thought.

  • steve Link

    ” Maybe the Chinese economy is in even worse shape than I thought.”

    That has been my thought.

    Steve

  • To understand what I’m talking about when I mention Chinese oil imports see here and then consider that oil contracts are generally still denominated in dollars. Consequently, devaluing their currency is a backdoor import duty on oil.

  • PD Shaw Link

    I thought this was a pretty good analysis:

    Putting the 2% in Context

    I understand the explanation to be pegging to the U.S. currency, helped overvalue the yuan vis-a-vis the Euro, the Yen, Australian Dollar and emerging market currencies.

  • Gray Shambler Link

    Jan, I am the devils advocate. Never criticize the “one we’ve been waiting for”. Or, is it now allowable?

  • Thanks for that link, PD. There are some things in that post that I agree with wholeheartedly (that behavior is a better gauge of the Chinese economy than the official press releases) and some in which I think he’s giving the Chinese authorities too much benefit of the doubt.

    In particular I think he’s too ready to conflate economic issues with political ones. The Chinese authorities don’t have any good options in almost the same sense that the Chicago City Council doesn’t or, in other words, there are plenty of good options but none that they find politically palatable.

    Unless this is a very short-term bounce, it’s mercantilism pure and simple and clumsy mercantilism at that. Is there really that much room for continued Chinese predation of the U. S. economy?

  • steve Link

    If they were anticipating an even larger drop in oil prices in the nearish future, say from Iran oil coming on to the market, wouldn’t that offset the effect of the increased dollar value?

    Steve

  • Jimbino Link

    What is the justification, in economics or morality, for taxing the childfree in order to support the breeding woman, who doubles her carbon footprint with every birth and whose progeny will be at once the major contributors to future climate change and other burdens on the planet and the ONLY ones to benefit from the onus borne by the living?

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