I recommend that you read Nate Silver’s analysis of the shift in voting patterns among blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Here’s his summary:
It’s worth pointing out that Black voters overall are still heavily Democratic. But going from 97 percent of the vote to 90 percent — not to mention 80 percent as more recent polls have found — is an enormous problem for the party. Democrats have become increasingly dependent on the votes of college graduates, but college grads are the minority — about 40 percent of people aged 25 and older have a bachelor’s degree or higher, and the share is no longer really increasing as the number of Americans attending college is leveling off, particularly among men. Without winning huge majorities of Black voters, and solid majorities of Hispanics and Asian Americans, Democrats’ electoral math doesn’t add up to a majority.
To win the election Republicans don’t need to receive a majority of the black, Hispanic, or Asian vote. They just need to reduce Democratic black, Hispanic, and Asian votes in the “battleground states” by a percentage or two. They’re not going to stop that with campaign strategies targeted at white, suburban, college-educated women.
