Perry Bacon devotes his Washington Post column to a consideration of the policy differences between states whose governments are dominated by Republicans and those dominated by Democrats:
The political divisions in the United States increasingly aren’t coming from Washington. America has divided starkly into states dominated by Republicans with a shared agenda and states dominated by Democrats with an alternative one. Much of America’s uncivil war, as President Biden has described it, stems from states adopting these divergent policies.
About 45 percent of Americans live in the 25 GOP-dominated states, and about 40 percent in the 16 Democratic ones. In effect, we have two Americas of policy — and only a small fraction of Americans live in a place where one vision or the other isn’t on the march.
But these two Americas are not parallel. Republicans have been more effective at implementing a unified, national agenda through state legislatures and governors. They are also using state power in a more extreme way than Democrats — for instance, changing election laws and limiting abortion rights so aggressively that these state-level policies have become the center of national political fights.
He focuses a lot on the moves of the legislatures to limit teaching of “some ideas” about race and gender as well as access to abortion:
In states where Republicans dominate government, they are passing policies that include limits on the teaching of some ideas about race and identity, as well as restrictions on people who identify as transgender. Meanwhile, Democrats are protecting existing abortion rights or even extending them.
What I found conspicuous by its absence was any consideration of net domestic migration. According to the Census Bureau four of the states experiencing the highest rates of net domestic outmigration are “Blue” states (New York, Illinois, California, Hawaii) while only one “Red” state is (North Dakota). Of the ten states with the highest rates of net domestic outmigration only two are “Red” states. Conversely, four of the five states with the highest rates of net domestic inmigration are “Red” states. Of the ten states with the highest rates of net domestic inmigration only two (Delaware and Maine) are “Blue” states. And the total outmigration of just the worst three “Blue” states is two orders of magnitude higher than the total inmigration of those two states.
As somebody once said you can tell a lot by which way the canoes are paddling. Whatever you think of the social policies of Red and Blue, it is clear that the Red States are doing something right while the Blue States are doing something wrong. Said another way just better grassroots-level organization won’t be enough to stem the outflow. There needs to be a change in policies other than social policies. Race, identity, and access to abortion are only a very small amount of what state and local governments do. More important are public safety, general education, zoning, corporate regulations, and tax policies.
Consider Illinois and its neighboring state, Indiana. Demographically, geographically, and in terms of climate the two states are quite similar. Illinois has the worst credit rating of any state but Indiana one of the best. Illinois is the most politically corrupt state in the Union, vying only with Louisiana for the crown. Indiana does not have similar issues. Illinois’s tax burden is one of the highest in the country; Indiana’s is in the middle of the pack. Illinois has a high rate of domestic outmigration; Indiana has net domestic inmigration, much of it probably from Illinois.
I don’t know which way the causality runs but there’s clearly something going on and I doubt that better messaging or local political organization are the issues.
Whatever you think of the social policies of Red and Blue, it is clear that the Red States are doing something right while the Blue States are doing something wrong.
People are voting with their feet, a non-trivial issue. When we look at investment opportunities, we look immediately at geographical markets served, and the operating environment. Capital follows opportunity, it is not prone to martyrdom.
You screw with people’s money, kids and personal safety and they will react. Maybe not immediately, but inevitably. I can’t explain the Democrat Party’s desire to self immolate. For that, I turn to you and steve.