The Geopolitics of Outbreak

I was somewhat disappointed by George Friedman’s analysis at Geopolitical Futures of the geopolitical implications of the coronavirus outbreak in China. On the one hand, he’s prudent to point out that the last few years have been sort of a perfect storm for China. There have been a significant number of events that did have geopolitical significance happening in rapid succession: their handling of the Uighurs in Xinjiang province, Trump’s trade war, and political unrest in Hong Kong. I would add to those President Xi’s consolidation of power in his own hands. If American and European analysts do not consider that of geopolitical significance, I can only speculate that they have short memories.

Unfortunately, I think he cops out on the coronavirus outbreak:

Now, to the coronavirus. Assume that the fears that are being expressed do not turn out to be exaggerated. Assume that in response to this, massive trade restrictions and embargoes were imposed on China and that freighters were not permitted to dock in Long Beach or Rotterdam, nor would they be permitted in Shanghai. With the Russians already screening China’s northern border, China would be isolated.

China is a nation whose core dynamic is based on international trade. Under pressure from the United States, a dangerous virus would inevitably cripple that trade at best. At this point, the Chinese government, like any government, would be blamed for what went wrong, and it would be blamed for mismanaging the virus and failing to understand the economic consequences. From here you can play out the game.

The reason for this exercise is to point out that the coronavirus is neither a geopolitical nor a political event. Diseases emerge with some frequency. But given the Chinese dynamic and China’s current condition, the virus could readily evolve into a geopolitical and political event, in which tension within China might explode, with the coronavirus the last straw and China’s international position transformed.

To emphasize, I have no idea what “2019-nCoV” is or what it will do, but judging from what is being said about it and the level of anxiety, I will assume for the sake of argument that it is more dangerous than not. Then, given the evolution of the past year or two, and given the fear that always follows new, deadly diseases, we could see a fundamental transformation of the international system.

Not all events are geopolitical. They do not arise out of relations between nations. But events that are unconnected to geopolitics can connect themselves to the system and disrupt it. This is meant as an exercise in geopolitical theory. It is not insignificant in the case of China, which has had a difficult period and doesn’t need to be quarantined by the world.

To the contrary, I think the coronavirus outbreak is already of geopolitical significance and that is entirely a creation of the Chinese authorities. Had they been more forthcoming than they have been and opened up to outside observers that might have been avoided. The only questions now are whether its effects will be persistent and precisely the form they will take. Those remain to be seen.