At the National Interest John Austin and Elaine Dezenski claim that Germany is repeating its error in trading with Russia with China now:
For similar reasons, some German politicians now seek to forge new economic ties with China. German chancellor Olaf Scholz visited China in November in order to “further develop†cooperation between the countries—efforts that led to China’s purchase of 140 Airbus airplanes.
By tying itself to China, however, Germany risks making its Russia mistake all over again. It is doing so at a time when tensions are heating up between Beijing and the West. Moreover, Germany should be investing in unprecedented transatlantic cooperation and pan-democratic unity in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, and as fears grow over a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The reason the Russian gas supply has stopped was predictable but not inevitable. It occurred because Russia is a country that a single person controls—a person capable of horrific and violent blunders. Indeed, reliance on Russian gas was a vulnerability because Russia is non-democratic and capricious. Today, the country is engaged in the megalomaniacal war of one man who has unified much of the democratic world in opposition.
By turning to China, however, BASF and other German companies risk another major miscalculation—allowing the allure of cheaper energy to bind them to another autocratic and capricious regime controlled largely by one man. Germany, which enjoys alliances throughout Europe and North America, should recognize the risks. Xi Jinping’s saber-rattling in the Taiwan Strait could be a sign of things to come. China is capable of making the same mistake as Russia and paying even more significant consequences. China’s economy is entangled with many of its Western trading partners.
On top of that, German engagement with China always carries the substantial risks of technology theft and knowledge transfer—a risk that some scholars have described as Beijing’s “weaponization of cooperation.â€
I think they’re dreaming. I see no prospect whatever that Germany will “decouple” from China. Chimany is stronger than Chimerica ever was. China is Germany’s largest trading partner and at present Germany, unlike most other countries in the world particularly the U. S., runs a trade surplus with China. That varies from year to year but Germany’s record has been pretty favorable to it. It is absolutely possible that Germany’s economy would collapse without Chinese trade. The risk averse Germans will not do it.
