The Crystal Ball on the Iowa Caucuses

Larry Sabato, lord and master of the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, puts in his two cents about the Iowa caucuses:

As we know from previous elections, polls in Iowa routinely miss the mark, and late surges can produce unexpected results.

There’s a reason for that. The Iowa caucuses are caucuses, not primaries. Well-prepared and organized people can swing the caucuses, especially the Democratic caucuses.

The short version of Dr. Sabato’s remarks is that we’ll soon have our first gauge of whether Trump’s support is real on the Republican side and just how formidable a candidate Sanders actually is on the Democratic one.

3 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    I’ve pretty much ignored the whole thing. Iowa and New Hampshire are anachronisms that don’t mean much IMO.

  • Guarneri Link

    That’s an interesting comment, Andy. I haven’t paid much attention either, but I keep hearing things like “if Trump takes two three of the first contests” he will be unstoppable

    Seems odd.

  • Andy Link

    I think it’s just me. I’m not vested in either party or their candidates and am not interested in the horse race at present.

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