The Concerning Job Statistics

Here’s a bit of statistical information that should, at the very least, be concerning. In August 2015 nearly 700,000 native-born Americans lost their jobs. That was offset somewhat by foreign-born Americans getting jobs:

The one chart that matters more than ever,has little to nothing to do with the Fed’s monetary policy, but everything to do with the November 2016 presidential elections in which the topic of immigration, both legal and illegal, is shaping up to be the most rancorous, contentious and divisive.

The chart is the following, showing the cumulative addition of foreign-born and native-born workers added to US payrolls according to the BLS since December 2007, i.e., since the start of the recession/Second Great Depression. [ed.: see chart in linked post]

The chart is especially important because what it shows for just the month of August will be enough to provide the Trump – and every other – campaign with enough soundbites and pivot points to last it for weeks on end: namely, that in August a whopping 698,000 native-born Americans lost their job. This drop was offset by 204,000 foreign-born Americans, who got a job in the month of August.

But the punchline: since December 2007, according to the Household Survey, only 790,000 native born American jobs have been added. Contrast that with the 2.1 million foreign-born Americans who have found a job over the same time period…

And people wonder why populist opinion, whether that of populist Republicans supporting Donald Trump or that of populist Democrats supporting Bernie Sanders, is in increasingly nativist.

It’s not as simple as Americans being replaced by foreigners (although in some cases it is). It’s also that some jobs are disappearing and other jobs are being created and a lot of the jobs being created are going to the foreign-born.

Clearly, we’re doing something wrong. I don’t know whether that something is educational or social or that we have lousy immigration policy or what. But we’re doing something wrong.