I want to home in on a single aspect of the 159 page deal that President Obama’s team has negotiated with the Iranians: the process by which sanctions will be lifted. As I understand the deal, after the IAEA has certified that Iran is conforming to its side of the agreement, sanctions may be lifted by a majority vote of a committee consisting of the United States, Iran, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the European Union. Please correct me if I’ve misunderstood the terms.
What immediately struck me that in essence Germany gets two votes—one for itself and one in the form of the European Union. If there’s one thing that should be clear from the draconian arrangement imposed on Greece by the EU finance ministers last week, it’s that “the EU” means Germany. Germany was the only country holding out for the tough measures imposed on Greece. Other countries were predisposed to lighter measures. What was the outcome? Tougher sanctions were imposed.
That in turn means Iran, Russia, China, and Germany can basically remove the sanctions at will. I have no doubt that Germany is eager to have the sanctions removed. Iran wouldn’t have a nuclear development program, its own munitions industry, or an aerospace program without German companies all eager to sell it whatever it wants to buy. The overwhelming preponderance of all machinery and industrial equipment in Iran comes from Germany.
Maybe. When it comes to financial issues, Germany has the clout. However, on military/security issues, Germany fights well below its weight. I suspect France might carry a bit more weight, but not really sure how it would play out. Though, if memory serves, didn’t France have some investments in Iran also?
Steve