I was unaware that the Chinese celebrated the Lunar New Year by floating high altitude balloons over other countries. Remarkable.
One of the biggest news stories of the day is about what is thought to be an intelligence-gathering balloon at high altitude, hovering over the United States. Vivian Salama reports at the Wall Street Journaol:
WASHINGTON—The State Department has indefinitely postponed Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing after what U.S. officials identified as a Chinese reconnaissance balloon was detected loitering above the continental U.S., a U.S. official said.
U.S. officials on Thursday said the craft was loitering over Montana having earlier crossed Alaska’s Aleutian Islands and Canada. The Pentagon scrambled jets and at one point considered shooting down the balloon, the officials said, though didn’t over concerns that the debris posed a risk to people on the ground.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday denied that the craft was a spy vehicle but was in fact a civilian balloon designed primarily for meteorological study and had blown off course. “China will continue to maintain communication with the U.S. to properly handle the unexpected situation,†a brief ministry statement said.
While never officially announced, Mr. Blinken’s trip was supposed to take him to Beijing for meetings Sunday and Monday.
While I think the Department of Defense made the correct call in not bringing the balloon down where its descent might threaten a populated area, I find the fact that we did not detect the balloon until it had in fact continued to where it might threaten a populated area discouraging. I would think that such incidents were taken seriously.
I have every confidence in the ability of the Chinese government to control its aircraft, whether piloted or not, heavier than air or lighter than air. Translation: the Chinese government’s explanation is pretty lame.
Update
The present wind patterns, illustrated above, make the official explanation even less likely. They might explain why it’s near stationary at this point, however.
“I was unaware that the Chinese celebrated the Lunar New Year by floating high altitude balloons over other countries. Remarkable.”
LOL
I think we should respond with a celebratory volley of rockets of our own when the balloon is safely over U. S. territorial waters.
Its not the current wind patterns that matter — but the wind patterns over the past month.
In general, the balloon is following the jet stream for the area — going northwest from Aleutian Islands towards Alaska, then Southwest through BC into the Plain States. It is plausible that a wayward meteorological balloon from Northeast China could drift over Far East Russia and then the Pacific Ocean and on to the US from air currents. I am pretty skeptical of Chinese explanations but reconnaissance is a pretty weak alternative explanation. Just one data point, I read this is not the first high altitude balloon the military has tracked that didn’t originate domestically — its only oddity is it stayed in Montana for a few days (which could be a wind current thing).
For the conspiracy minded; the reason why the US didn’t shoot down the balloon is because the US military is already using high attitude balloons to spy on Russia and China, and the information gathered is so juicy they don’t want to set a precedent on shooting them down. (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/05/u-s-militarys-newest-weapon-against-china-and-russia-hot-air-00043860) — Note the story was in July of last year.
The other thing is Blinken was supposed to visit Beijing next week. But given rather aggressive moves from both sides recently (perhaps to set the table for the meeting); maybe announcing this was a way to save face for both sides over what would have been an extremely acrimonious encounter.
I feel like this story needs a shout out to one-hit wonder Nena and her 99 Luftballons that bring on a nuclear apocalypse:
99 red balloons
Floating in the summer sky
Panic bells, it’s red alert
There’s something here from somewhere else
The war machine springs to life
Opens up one eager eye
Focusing it on the sky
The 99 red balloons go by
Would be embarrassing if balloon failed to deflate when attacked by the high tech USAF. From the BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/161687.stm, 1000 rounds (or so) cannon rounds later, the balloon sailed on.
PD Shaw just gave his age away, and I approve!
It’s public information now that the balloons are somewhat steerable. Not any kind of amazing technology, but it mainly involves changing altitude to take advantage of winds. Hence why it stayed over Montana for a couple of days.
But now it’s moved on. And the Air Force isn’t practicing good OPSEC, but in fairness, they really can’t over the US:
https://twitter.com/aircraftrack/status/1621685574343053313?s=20
Anyway, I have my popcorn out. This middle-aged intel guy is enjoying this immensely.
“Would be embarrassing if balloon failed to deflate when attacked by the high tech USAF.”
These types of balloons are low-pressure and don’t necessarily pop. You put a bunch of holes in them and they will come down but slowly as the gas inside leaks out slowly.