I have searched in vain for a dispassionate, factual assessment of the damage in Puerto Rico. Very nearly all I’ve been able to come up with is that Hurricane Maria has wreaked enormous damage to the island’s structures, power grid, and telecommunications system. Communications, especially with the interior, are spotty and major news outlets are more interested in counting coup than they are in reporting the news. Much of the island may be without electricity for months or even years. There is a major dam that has been severely damaged and may be on the brink of failing.
Puerto Rico has a confusing and anomalous status. It is neither a state nor an independent country. It is a territory of the United States, notionally under the direct control of Congress—like the District of Columbia which should tell you something. However, it also has its own constitution and governor. In the most recent referendum nearly all of those voting voted for statehood but only 22% voted.
The island’s government has incurred enormous debt and the hurricane’s damage will make it hard for the island to make its interest payments.
In my view our response to the disaster in Puerto Rico should consist of four planks:
- The Navy and/or Coast Guard should immediately be dispatched to Puerto Rico to render humanitarian aid, do what is possible to prevent a massive dam burst, and generally manage the situation there. The military is the only institution capable of responding at the level required in the time that is available.
- Puerto Rico should be taken into a sort of receivership. A civilian manager should be appointed to assess the damage, continue the provision of assistance, and manage the ongoing federal government response. The commonwealth’s present government should be subordinate to this manager.
- Congress should pass a massive emergency support stipend for Puerto Rico, as noted above to be administered by the federal manager. The money should be spent as quickly as possible.
- Puerto Rico should either become an independent country or a state. It shouldn’t be a choice. Its status should be determined by Congress with all due speed. Its present status is a formula for failure.
The people of Puerto Rico should should not be required to face the problems imposed by domestic partisan political squabbling as well as the consequences of the natural disaster but that’s what’s likely to happen.
Update
At City Journal Nicole Gelinas says that there’s help that Puerto Rico needs now:
Puerto Rico is different. Gov. Ricardo Rosselló says power will be out for weeks or months.
Puerto Rico can get some power much faster, and already is. Big generators combined with the hundreds of electric-industry workers who are already descending from the mainland with emergency equipment can likely re-power critical sites in days, and major population centers in days or weeks.
One aircraft carrier can power and provide drinking water for a city.
If only others could think as clearly as you can. Alas!
Congress can give Puerto Rico a binding plebecite with a choice of independence or statehood. The package for independence should be generous – take over their debt over 50% of GDP.
Congress should not determine status without such a vote – that would be taking away Puerto Rico right to self determination.
I wouldn’t object to a binding plebiscite but I think that Puerto Rico’s situation is distinctive. Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think that any of the states had violent independence movements.
You meant violent independence movement from the US prior to statehood?
Here is one scenario; a new generation comes along; they start resenting their cultural absorbsion into the US. They latch on that there was never a vote and start campaigning for independence. Near majority support occurs because independence advocates promise the moon or that they can blackmail Washington into a better deal. What does the rest of the US do at that point?
Its one scenario – but pretty plausible since independence advocates have used similar arguments elsewhere.
The most recent referendum was boycotted due to the language on the ballots; there seems to be a constant debate about the ballots, particularly the number of options that should be presented. I don’t find the referenda convincing enough for anything. Compare with this background on the Hawaii vote on admission from Wikipedia:
“Out of a total population of 600,000 in the islands and 155,000 registered voters, 140,000 votes were cast, the highest turnout ever in Hawaii. The vote showed approval rates of at least 93% by voters on all major islands (see adjacent figure for details). Of the approximately 140,000 votes cast, fewer than 8,000 rejected the Admission Act of 1959.”
Yes, that’s what I meant. That was the case in Puerto Rico just a few years ago. It still may be for all I know.
Lets handle the immediate problem of rescue and recovery while enjoying the outrage theatre. Once things are back to more or less normal, lets deal with the debt issue and independence/State hood. I would prefer to remind the financial sectors they aren’t too big to fail by a few hair cuts and let the Puerto Ricans conduct and hold a in or out vote.
I agree. However, we shouldn’t lose track of the implications. Statehood has both risks and rewards as does sovereignty. There are actually three different issues and they are interrelated:
For an example of why we ought to let Puerto Ricans decide their fate; look at the example of Canada and Newfoundland.
Newfoundland joined Canada in 1949 after 2 close referendums (1 of which was binding). At the time; Newfoundland had refused to join Canada on multiple occasions for 80 years. It had independence and its own distinct culture. However, Newfoundland’s lost a lot of men in WWI, went bankrupt in the great depression, and reverted to direct rule by the UK. After WWII, Newfoundland was given a choice of independence or merger with Canada. At the time of merger, Newfoundland had a GDP per capita around 1/4 or Canada’s.
The story doesn’t end there — it has not been an easy marriage. Newfoundland was “cheated” out of a lot of money by another province and its natural resource based economy went through several tough downturns. But Newfoundland has never developed a strong independence movement — I credit that because Newfoundlander’s knew they voted for the merger.
People have a lot more incentive to stick to a marriage if they know its indissoluble and they still volunteered for it.
By the way, I totally think we ought to be generous to help Puerto Rico; even if not a state, they are part of this country.
Whoa! There are issues more important than kneeling? Thank heavens you are not a right wing snowflake. Anyway, one of new hires just left Puerto Rico a few months ago after working there for three years. What information that he is getting is pretty bad and among all the other problems they have no functional medical care. He will be joining a team to go back and help.
Steve
My provisional view is that the United States should negotiate for an orderly transition to PR independence. Had their economy grown in synch with the U.S. over the last one hundred years, I think things would be different. But we have an island nation, whose economy is dependent upon U.S. benefits, with special Puerto Rican exemptions from various tax and regulatory systems that are keeping it afloat. Repeal of Section 936 has set the economy in a tailspin and encouraged transfer to the mainland. OTOH, while a number of Caribbean countries have fostered themselves as tourist destinations, PR is stuck with the U.S. minimum wage, which is either honored to its competitive detriment or violated as part of a system of government abetted corruption. Meanwhile Tyler Cowen is arguing that we can help PR by giving them as much of an exemption from the Jones Act as politically feasible, i.e. screw over Houston and New Orleans. PR would not be subject to the Jones Act as an independent country.
The U.S. should agree to carry some of the debt because this is a U.S. territory and the U.S. does not have clean hands in the failed economic development initiatives.
If it’s not clear, this is a comment on the last step; of course, the U.S. should be engaged in humanitarian relief efforts for itself.
Ummm, Mr. Schuler, this guy was my first lover, in high school:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/richardmerrick
He studies harmonics. He might be an interesting resource for anyone pursuing the topic. He was playing Bill Evans on his baby grand at 17.